中国农业碳排放区域异质性、驱动因素与差异化减排路径OA

Based on agricultural carbon emission data from 31 provincial-level regions in China over the period 2011-2022(excluding Hong Kong,Macao,and Taiwan),this study applies the IPCC coefficient method and an extended LMDI(Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index)model to examine regional heterogeneity,driving forces,and mitigation pathways of agricultural carbon emissions.Total agricultural emissions reached 3.2×108 t CO2e,with concentrations in eastern and central China and differentiated patterns in western and northeastern regions.The eastern region contributed 42.7%of emissions,mainly driven by chemical fertilizer use.Emission intensity exhibits a gradient of"Northeast>Central>West>East,"with Northeast China showing levels about 1.3 times higher than those in the east due to low water-energy coupling efficiency in cold-region agriculture.Decomposition results indicate that economic development is the primary driver of emission growth,whereas improvements in agricultural production efficiency are the main mitigating factor.Regional mechanisms differ markedly,with efficiency-led mitigation in the east,technological constraints in the central region,resource dependence in the west,and structural lock-in in the northeast.Accordingly,differentiated mitigation strategies are proposed to support agricultural decarbonization and China's dual-carbon goals.