首发经济如何引领家庭消费结构升级OACHSSCD

Promoting the upgrading of household consumption structure is a key link in enhancing people's sense of gain in livelihood and advancing Chinese-style modernization.Currently,China faces a supply-demand mismatch characterized by overcapacity in low-end sectors and insufficient supply in high-end sectors.The first-launch economy,centered on the inaugural market release of new products and services,has emerged as a pivotal instrument to address this issue and unlock consumption potential.This study aims to empirically investigate the impact and mechanisms of the first-launch economy on household consumption structure,providing theoretical and empirical insights for cultivating new economic drivers and optimizing consumption supply policies within the new development paradigm. Based on micro-level data from the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)spanning 2010 to 2022,this study employs a fixed-effects model for analysis.The dependent variable,consumption structure,is measured by the ratio of enjoyment-oriented consumption to subsistence-oriented consumption.The core explanatory variable,the level of first-launch economy development,is constructed via principal component analysis,with the first-store economy measured by the annual number of newly opened first stores,and the experience economy measured by the annual count of exhibitions and gatherings registered with local culture and tourism authorities.Both micro-level variables(e.g.,household income,household size,and head of household characteristics)and macro-level variables(e.g.,regional industrial structure)are controlled for.To ensure the reliability of conclusions,robustness tests are conducted,including adding lag terms to mitigate consumption habit bias,constructing Shift-Share instrumental variables to address endogeneity from bidirectional causality,replacing variable measurement methods,excluding samples from municipalities directly under the Central Government and the COVID-19 period,and adopting machine learning estimation.Additionally,the study further examines underlying mechanisms and moderating effects. The empirical results reveal four main findings.First,the first-launch economy significantly drives the upgrading of household consumption structure.The coefficient of the core explanatory variable in the benchmark regression is significantly positive,and the conclusion remains valid after a series of robustness tests.Second,the mechanism operates through three channels:the first-launch economy increases household income by generating high-end jobs and boosting business district value appreciation;drives innovation and entrepreneurship by stimulating technological iteration and fostering an entrepreneurial ecosystem;and enhances social connections by building consumption communities and strengthening cultural identity—ultimately optimizing the consumption structure.Third,the moderating effect analysis indicates that internet access,high-quality consumption environments,and the level of opening-up can significantly amplify the driving role of the first-launch economy.Fourthly,further analysis reveals that the impact of the first-launch economy is heterogeneous.It exhibits a statistically significant upgrading effect only on households with a consumption structure above the median level,while its effect on those below the median is insignificant.Consequently,this differential impact objectively widens the existing gap in consumption structure. The innovations and values of this study are as follows.First,it adopts an innovative research perspective by being the first to empirically explore the relationship between the first-launch economy and consumption structure at the household micro-level,addressing the macro-oriented bias of existing studies and expanding the scope of income distribution theory.Second,it conducts an in-depth exploration of mechanisms,identifying three paths of action(income,innovation,and social connections)and three moderating factors,thereby enriching the empirical research system on the first-launch economy.Third,it offers clear policy implications.The findings provide micro-level evidence for the construction of international consumption center cities and inclusive consumption growth.It also puts forward suggestions such as strengthening the digital ecosystem development of the first-launch economy,building a sound demand-supply cycle,and improving consumption infrastructure in underdeveloped regions.These suggestions hold significant practical value for smoothing domestic circulation and promoting high-quality consumption development.