国际市场价格对中国乳制品进口的溢出影响分析OA

[Objective]To analyze the current status of China's dairy product import trade,decompose the structural factors behind import fluctuations,measure the spillover effects of international market prices on China's dairy imports and their dynamic transmission mechanisms,and provide targeted recommendations for the development of China's dairy industry.[Method]The basic situation of China's dairy import trade was reviewed through a status analysis.A CMS model was constructed to decompose the structural factors of import fluctuations and analyze the influencing factors of import changes during 2018-2023.The TVP-VAR-DY model was employed to measure the directionality and dynamics of international price spillovers and analyze the price spillover effects.[Result]The international market exhibits dynamically fluctuating trade price spillover effects on China's dairy product imports,and the transmission demonstrates bidirectional characteristics.China presents the characteristics of a"net receiver"in dairy import pricing.Risks of excessive dependence on a single market and single product category exist in dairy imports.[Conclusion]Based on the research findings,targeted recom-mendations are proposed to provide a reference for the future development direction of China's dairy industry,aiming to mitigate international price spillover risks and optimize the import structure.