我国鸡蛋价格周期性波动规律及市场状态转换研究OA

[Objective]As a primary agricultural product with rich nutritional value,the price fluctuation of eggs is related to people's livelihood.However,in recent years,the price fluctuation is obvious,and the market fluctuation of egg prices is discussed.[Method]The data from January 2000 to July 2024 were selected to study the cyclical fluctuation pattern of egg prices through the HP filtering method.Meanwhile,the prices of wheat bran,soybean meal,chicks,egg-laying feed,corn,and dressed chicken were chosen as influencing factors to construct an MSH(3)-VAR(1)model to analyze the state transition of the egg market.[Result]Since the new century,the price of eggs has shown an upward trend,with longer downward cycles and greater fluctuations.It has gone through seven complete cycles,with a fluctuation period of 39 months.The price of chicks,as the main related factor of egg prices,when the market is affected by major upstream factors such as chicks,egg feed,and corn,and is in a non-stable oscillation state,takes 18 months to reach stability.During this process,the factor of egg feed prices becomes significantly stronger.Currently,the egg cycle is in an upward state,and it is expected that the market situation will be good from the second half of 2024 to the end of 2025.[Conclusion]Managers should strengthen market price monitoring and early warning,and advocate rational replenishment of aquaculture subjects.Producers should arrange production reasonably and transfer risks by means of"insurance+futures".