自由贸易试验区建设对我国出口韧性的影响OACHSSCD
Impact of pilot free trade zone construction on China's export resilience
自由贸易试验区(FTZ)是我国推动高水平对外开放的重要战略举措,承担着优化营商环境、提升贸易便利化水平等重要使命.目前,我国出口贸易面临诸多挑战,提升出口韧性成为增强我国国际竞争力、确保贸易稳定增长的关键.本文基于 2010-2022 年中国 280 个城市的面板数据,采用多期双重差分模型(DID),通过稳健性检验、异质性分析系统评估自由贸易试验区设立对出口韧性的影响.在此基础上,进一步考察数字经济、市场潜力、人力资本和税收负担的调节作用,并通过构建空间计量模型分析自由贸易试验区对出口韧性的空间效应,以及在各调节变量的作用下自由贸易试验区对邻近地区出口韧性的空间影响.研究发现:(1)相比于非自由贸易试验区所在城市,设立自由贸易试验区的城市出口韧性水平提高了 2.68%,表明自由贸易试验区的设立显著提高了出口韧性.(2)数字经济、市场潜力和人力资本对出口韧性具有正向作用,而企业税收负担的增加在一定程度上削弱了自由贸易试验区对出口韧性的正向影响.(3)空间效应方面,自由贸易试验区政策能够显著增强本地区的出口韧性,但是对周边地区的出口稳定性影响有限,各调节变量的空间效应显著程度有异.基于以上结论,本文提出深化数字经济发展、充分挖掘国内市场潜力、加强高素质人才培养、优化税收政策和加强自由贸易试验区之间合作的对策建议,旨在推动数字贸易建设,优化区域经济结构并提升政策的协同效应,为增强我国出口韧性提供参考.
Pilot free trade zone(FTZ)represents a major strategic initiative for China to advance high-standard opening-up,with important missions including optimizing the business environment and enhancing trade facilitation.Currently,China's export trade confronts multiple challenges,making enhancing export resilience a key factor in boosting international competitiveness and stabilizing trade growth.Based on panel data from 280 Chinese cities from 2010 to 2022,this paper employs a multi-period difference-in-differences(DID)model to systematically evaluate the impact of pilot FTZ establishment on export resilience,supplemented by robustness tests and heterogeneity analysis.Furthermore,it examines the moderating effects of the digital economy,market potential,human capital,and tax burden,and analyzes the spatial effects of pilot FTZ on export resilience using a spatial econometric model.This paper also explores how these moderating variables influence the spatial impact of pilot FTZ on the export resilience of neighboring regions.The findings are as follows.(1)Compared to cities without pilot FTZ,those with pilot FTZ experienced a 2.68%increase in export resilience,indicating that pilot FTZ establishment significantly enhances export resilience.(2)The digital economy,market potential,and human capital positively enhance export resilience,while an increase in corporate tax burden partially weakens the positive impact of pilot FTZ.(3)In terms of spatial effects,pilot FTZ policies significantly enhance local export resilience but exert limited impacts on the export stability of neighboring regions,with the spatial effects of the moderating variables exhibiting significant heterogeneity.Based on these conclusions,this paper proposes policy recommendations,including deepening the development of the digital economy,fully tapping into domestic market potential,strengthening the cultivation of high-quality talents,optimizing tax policies,and enhancing collaboration among pilot FTZ.These measures aim to promote digital trade development,optimize regional economic structures,and enhance policy synergy,thereby providing valuable references for boosting China's export resilience.
孟祥铭;李航
沈阳工业大学 经济学院,辽宁 沈阳 110870沈阳工业大学 经济学院,辽宁 沈阳 110870
管理科学
自由贸易试验区出口韧性调节效应空间效应
pilot free trade zoneexport resiliencemoderating effectspatial effects
《沈阳工业大学学报（社会科学版）》 2026 (1)
47-57,11
辽宁省教育厅高校基本科研项目(LJ132510142001).
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