气候治理的协同效应:中国碳中和路径的多情景模拟研究OACHSSCD

Currently,it is imperative to address multiple challenges related to energy security,economic stability,and environmental quality for achieving China̍s"dual-carbon"goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality against the backdrop of deepening global cli-mate governance.Based on an Integrated Assessment Model(IAM),this study simulates the synergistic evolution pathways of China̍s energy-economic-environment(3E)system under varying climate governance intensities,setting four scenarios for the baseline,car-bon neutrality,2℃ and 1.5℃ targets.The results indicate that the stringency of climate policies is the decisive factor driving the energy system transformation.Under the carbon neutrality scenario,coal consumption declines sharply,while non-fossil energy sources experi-ence leapfrog growth.In addition,there is a significant synergistic effect between carbon emission reduction and environmental govern-ance.The carbon neutrality pathway achieves deep decarbonization while simultaneously leading to substantial co-reductions in atmos-pheric pollutants such as SO2 and N2 O.Moreover,notable cost-benefit differences are observed across different pathways.Transitioning from the baseline scenario to the carbon neutrality pathway falls within a high-efficiency zone,whereas pursuing the more ambitious 1.5℃target enters a high-cost trade-off zone with diminishing marginal benefits.The systematic quantification of synergistic effects and pathway trade-offs in this study are anticipated to offer theoretical insights and decision-making references for exploring robust pathways that harmonize energy,environmental,and economic development under China̍s carbon neutrality goal.