中国成品油市场2025年回顾与2026年展望OACHSSCD

In 2025,as China continued to advance its carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals and accelerated the energy transition,the refined oil products market sustained a downward trend in consumption.Annual consumption totaled 346 million tons,representing a year-on-year decline of 3.6%and falling below the pre-COVID-19 level recorded in 2019.The consumption structure displayed a distinct pattern,characterized by declining demand for gasoline and diesel and continued growth in aviation kerosene—a"two decreases and one increase"trend.Specifically,gasoline consumption decreased by 3.9%year-on-year,diesel consumption dropped by 5.0%,and aviation kerosene consumption rose by 3.7%,a significantly moderated growth rate.Meanwhile,total refining capacity expanded to 948 million tons per year and the production decreased by 3.9%amid contracting demand and export policies-oriented with the narrowed the supply-demand gap.Looking ahead to 2026,China's total refined oil product consumption is expected to decline further to 329 million tons,with the rate of decline widening to 4.7%.Gasoline and diesel consumption are projected to fall by 6.2%and 5.4%respectively,while aviation kerosene consumption growth is expected to maintain a steady pace of 3.3%.Refining capacity is anticipated to increase marginally to 963 million tons per year,and the oversupply of refined oil products in the domestic market is likely to remain pronounced.