2050年全球能源体系发展趋势研判OACHSSCD

In 2025,major international energy organizations successively released updated versions of their medium-and long-term energy outlook reports.A comparative analysis of these reports focusing on such key areas and indicators as primary energy demand,energy consumption structure,and power development trends reveals that future global primary energy consumption will continue to grow at a slowing pace,the energy mix is undergoing a sustained transition toward a low-carbon and cleaner mode,coal and oil consumption are projected to decline significantly,natural gas is expected to experience phased growth by 2050,the share of non-fossil energy in global consumption is set to rise to over 50%,establishing it as the dominant source of energy supply,and electricity demand is projected to increase substantially,reaching between 40 and 80 trillion kWh by 2050,with the power generation mix becoming increasingly dominated by new energy sources.In China,energy demand is expected to peak in the near future and then decline gradually,coal consumption is anticipated to decrease markedly after peaking around 2025,oil consumption will decrease slowly after peaking around 2030,natural gas consumption is projected to grow continuously until 2040,and the decarbonization of China's energy structure is accelerating,with the share of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption projected to rise to between 40%and 80%by 2050,gradually becoming the mainstay of the country's energy supply.