电力规划研究中的电动汽车顶峰潜力预测方法OA

In power planning research,accurate estimation of the discharge capacity of electric vehicles(EVs)is required to optimize the allocation of power resources and to rationally plan the industry's carbon-peaking pathway.Existing research on EV discharge capacity prediction is mostly limited to micro-regions within cities,with few studies covering the provincial or national scale across China.This paper proposes a novel prediction method that evaluates discharge potential during midday and evening load peaks of private cars,official vehicles and electric buses,based on prediction of EV parameters,user behavior characteristics,and Vehicle-to-Grid(V2G)demands for each region during the planning period.Preliminary calculations for 2030 align well with policy targets,suggesting that V2G can provide gigawatt-level regulation capacity.The results obtained from accurate V2G parameter predictions could offer valuable insights to energy authorities for optimizing power generation and grid infrastructure planning.