安徽省小型水库安全状态与数字孪生建设探讨OA
Exploration of safety status and digital twin construction of small reservoirs in Anhui Province
小型水库受筑坝工艺、材料、运维及除险等综合因素影响,库坝安全运行状态难以准确预测预警,是制约其安全运行管理能力提升的重要因素.为探索小型水库安全运行状态高精度预测方法和构建符合小型水库特点的数字孪生工程技术路径,本文以安徽省小型水库为例,分析不同坝型的具体特点,结合水库大坝安全监测指标,剖析了土石坝与混凝土坝水库安全运行的主要动态与静态影响因子,探索了大坝安全风险状态预测预警技术路线.基于传统安全监测模型技术,分析了统计学模型、确定性模型和监测混合模型的功能及应用限制条件,提出数理驱动的小型水库大坝安全监测预警指标分析方法,构建了预警"产生—发布—处置"的多级协同处理预警体系.此外,以"工程安全"为核心,本文提出了小型水库数字孪生建设技术方案,并按照预报、预警、预演、预案技术路径,结合应用实例,探讨了小型水库大坝安全监测预警及数字孪生应用成果,以期为小型水库安全运行管理能力提升提供重要技术支撑.
Due to the comprehensive factors such as dam construction technologies,materials,operation and maintenance,and risk mitigation,it is difficult to achieve the accurate prediction and early warning of the safe operation status of small reservoir dams,which thus becomes an important factor restricting the improvement of their safe operation and management capacity.To explore high-accuracy prediction methods for the safe operation status of small reservoirs and construct a technical path for digital twin projects in line with the characteristics of small reservoirs,this study analyzes the specific characteristics of different dam types by taking small reservoirs in Anhui as an example.Meanwhile,it combines the safety monitoring indicators of reservoir dams,conducts in-depth analysis of the main dynamic and static influencing factors of the safe operation of earth-rockfill dam and concrete dam reservoirs,and explores the technical route for the prediction and early warning of the safety risk status of dams.Based on traditional safety monitoring model technologies,it analyzes the functions and application constraints of statistical models,deterministic models and hybrid monitoring models,and proposes a mathematical-driven analysis method for the safety monitoring and early warning indicators of small reservoir dams,constructing a multi-level collaborative early warning system for the generation,release and disposal of early warnings.Additionally,with"project safety"as the core,this paper puts forward a technical scheme for the digital twin construction of small reservoirs.In accordance with the technical path of forecast,early-warning,rehearsal,and contingency planning,the application results of dam safety monitoring,early warning and digital twin for small reservoirs are discussed by combining application cases to provide important technical support for improving the safe operation and management capacity of small reservoirs.
王铭铭;张皖博;刘斌斌
安徽省(水利部淮河水利委员会)水利科学研究院,230094,合肥||安徽省水科学与智慧水利重点实验室,230088,合肥安徽水科数智信息技术有限公司,230094,合肥||安徽省水科学与智慧水利重点实验室,230088,合肥安徽水科数智信息技术有限公司,230094,合肥||安徽省水科学与智慧水利重点实验室,230088,合肥
建筑与水利
小型水库大坝安全监测预测预警数字孪生工程安全模型影响因子
small reservoirdam safety monitoringprediction and early warningdigital twinproject safetymodelinfluencing factor
《中国水利》 2026 (2)
60-65,6
水利技术示范项目(SF-202414)安徽省水利厅科研及技术咨询项目(SLKJ202501-07).
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