新建城际铁路对出行频次影响的仿真研究OA

Predicting induced passenger flow after changes in travel environment and quantitatively analyzing the impacts of newly built intercity railway on travel frequency are of significant importance in both theoretical research and engineering practice of transportation planning.Based on travel choice behavior theory,two linked Multinomial Logit models were applied to describe the choice behavior of travelers under changing travel environment.The first model simulated the choice of travel mode for travelers with different origin-destination(OD)pairs and the second model simulated the choice of travel frequency by travelers.By introducing a traveler's consumer surplus variable,the two models were linked with each other.Using the Nanjing-Huai'an High-speed Railway(Nanjing-Huai'an Intercity Railway),which was about to commence operation,as the research background,changes in travel frequency were quantitatively analyzed based on revealed preference survey data and stated preference survey data.The results showed that the Multinomial Logit model was suitable for predicting induced passenger flow after changes in travel environment;travelers'consumer surplus was a key factor affecting changes in travel frequency,and social characteristics of travelers and economic development characteristics of OD cities had significant impacts on travel frequency;in-vehicle travel time was a key factor affecting demand elasticity of travel frequency,demand-elasticity values for short-distance business travel and non-business travel ranged from-0.61 to-0.79,and the results of elasticity analysis predicted that,after the opening of the Ninghuai Intercity Railway,travel frequency of travelers from Nanjing to destinations such as Huai'an,Suqian,Lianyungang,and Yancheng increased by approximately 45%.