首页|期刊导航|水力发电学报|融合特征选择与特征提取的带缝拱坝位移预测模型

融合特征选择与特征提取的带缝拱坝位移预测模型OA

Displacement prediction model for arch dams with cracks integrating feature selection and feature extraction

中文摘要英文摘要

为实现对带缝拱坝位移的准确预测,针对现有预测模型未能充分考虑温度滞后效应与裂缝影响,以及位移影响因子繁杂冗余、预测精度偏低的问题,本文提出一种新的预测方法.首先,建立同时考虑温度滞后效应与裂缝影响的带缝拱坝位移监控模型;随后,采用梯度提升回归树(GBRT)对影响因子进行特征选择,剔除无关变量,并利用核主成分分析(KPCA)对保留的温度滞后因子和裂缝因子进行特征提取,构建位移预测数据集;然后,结合樽海鞘群优化算法(SSA)与核极限学习机(KELM),建立SSA-KELM位移预测模型.工程实例结果表明,特征选择与特征提取能够有效削弱无关变量的干扰,降低数据维度,从而显著提升预测精度;与其他对比模型相比,SSA-KELM表现出最佳的预测精度和稳定性,为带缝拱坝位移预测提供了一种新的可行方法,能够为大坝安全监控与运行管理提供科学依据与技术支持.

Previous prediction models were limited by their inadequate consideration of temperature hysteresis effects and crack influences of an arch dam,and suffer from overly complex,redundant displacement factors and low prediction accuracy.To achieve accurate predictions of displacement in the arch dams with significant cracks,this paper develops a novel predictive method.First,we construct a displacement monitoring model for the dams,accounting for temperature hysteresis effect and crack influences.Then,a gradient boosting regression tree(GBRT)is used for feature selection among influencing factors,eliminating irrelevant variables;Kernel principal component analysis(KPCA)is applied to extract features from the retained temperature hysteresis and crack factors,so as to construct a displacement prediction dataset.Finally,we construct a displacement prediction model by integrating the salp swarm algorithm with the kernel extreme learning machine(SSA-KELM).Engineering case results demonstrate feature selection and feature extraction effectively mitigate the interference of irrelevant variables and reduce data dimensions,thereby improving prediction accuracy significantly.Compared with other benchmark models,SSA-KELM that presents the highest prediction accuracy and stability is a new viable approach for predicting displacement in arch dams with cracks.

蒋成阳;苏怀智;徐波

扬州大学 水利科学与工程学院,江苏 扬州 225009||河海大学 水灾害防御全国重点实验室 南京,210098河海大学 水灾害防御全国重点实验室 南京,210098||河海大学 水利水电学院,南京 210098扬州大学 水利科学与工程学院,江苏 扬州 225009||河海大学 水灾害防御全国重点实验室 南京,210098

建筑与水利

拱坝位移预测滞后效应裂缝影响特征选择核主成分分析机器学习

arch dam displacement predictionhysteresis effectcrack influencefeature selectionkernel principal component analysismachine learning

《水力发电学报》 2026 (2)

1-14,14

国家自然科学基金项目(52079120)水灾害防御全国重点实验室开放基金项目(2024490211)

10.11660/slfdxb.20260201

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