基于AHP-Shapley值法的经营性水利风景区PPP项目风险分担机制研究OACHSSCD
The risk sharing mechanism of PPP projects in operational water conservancy scenic spots based on the AHP-Shapley value method
明确经营性水利风景区政府和社会资本合作(PPP)项目的风险承担主体及分担比例,是吸引社会资本参与、促进政企双方合作、保障项目健康持续发展的基础.运用WSR方法论,从"物理、事理、人理"3 个维度出发,梳理了经营性水利风景区PPP 项目中存在的 23 项风险,确定了风险分担原则并厘清各项风险的承担主体;针对其中应由政企双方共同承担的风险,构建了随机合作博弈模型,并采用AHP-Shapley值法求解风险分担的Shapley值,建立了该类项目中应由政企双方共同承担的风险在政企间的分配比例模型.以江苏某经营性水利风景区PPP 项目为例验证模型的可行性,结果表明,对于经营性水利风景区PPP项目,可基于"物理、事理、人理"维度梳理项目风险及承担主体,并基于AHP-Shapley值法确定应由政企共担的风险在主体间的分配比例.
Clarifying the subject of risk bearing and sharing proportion of Public-Private Partnership(PPP)project in operational water conservancy scenic spots is fundamental to attracting social capital,fostering government-enterprise collaboration,and ensuring the healthy and sustainable development of such projects.Using the WSR methodology,this paper identifies 23 risks in PPP projects for operational water conservancy scenic spots based on the three dimensions of Wuli,Shili,and Renli.It establishes risk sharing principles and clarifies the responsible entities for each risk.For risks to be jointly borne by the government and enterprises,a stochastic cooperative game model is constructed,and the AHP-Shapley value method is used to calculate the Shapley value for risk sharing.A proportional risk sharing model between the government and enterprises for jointly borne risks in such projects is established.The feasibility of the model is verified using a case study of a PPP project in an operational water conservancy scenic spot in Jiangsu Province.The results indicate that risks and their responsible entities in PPP projects for operational water conservancy scenic spots can be systematically identified based on the dimensions of Wuli,Shili,and Renli,and the proportion of risks that should be shared between the government and enterprises is determined using the AHP-Shapley value method.
吴兆丹;王诗琪;雷一诺;徐丹丹
河海大学商学院河海大学公共管理学院对外经济贸易大学中国金融学院江苏商贸职业学院人文与旅游学院
水利风景区政府和社会资本合作风险分担AHP-Shapley值法WSR方法
water conservancy scenic spotpublic-private partnershiprisk sharingAHP-Shapley value methodWSR method
《水利经济》 2026 (1)
104-111,8
江苏省社会科学基金项目(23 GLC003,22GLB018)中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(人文专项)(B230207063)
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