多种政策组合下中国林业高质量发展的系统动力学仿真研究OA

[Objective]The internal mechanism of the high-quality forestry development system is complex,and it is necessary to strengthen the construction of the policy system for high-quality forestry development through the optimized configuration of different policy combinations to cope with the coordination requirements of high-quality forestry development for multiple economic,ecological and social goals.[Method]Based on the new development philosophy,a simulation model of high-quality forestry development system was constructed from four dimensions:scientific and technological innovation,industrial coordination,people's livelihood and green development.The high-quality development level of China's forestry from 2021 to 2035 was simulated under four policy-oriented scenarios.[Result](1)China's forestry high-quality development will reach a medium-high level,and can even reach a high level under certain policy combinations in 2035.(2)The development potential of the scenario of scientific and technological innovation priority under the implementation of a single policy is the best.(3)The development potential of combined policies is better than that of single policies.(4)As the number of policies accumulates,the marginal effect decreases.[Conclusion]Based on priority,technological innovation and green development should be the focus of current policy implementation,while industrial restructuring and the improvement of people's well-being should be pursued as long-term objectives.Promote the implementation of integrated policies involving multiple departments to enhance the level of high-quality forestry development.Policymakers should coordinate at the macro level to avoid the duplication or conflict of multiple policies.