江苏省城市社会风险评估及其波动效应的实证考察OA

[Research purpose]Strengthening social risks governance is crucial for enhancing national governance capacity.From a catastrophe theory perspective,this study conducts an empirical assessment of urban social risks and their fluctuations in Jiangsu Province.[Research method]An evaluation system with three dimensions and 12 indicators is constructed,and a catastrophe model is used to examine the evolution trend of urban social risks in Jiangsu Province from 2010 to 2023.[Research conclusion]The results show an overall long-term decline in social risks,albeit with short-term fluctuations caused by external shocks.Spatially,risks increase incrementally from southern to central and northern Jiangsu.While social security and environmental governance have improved,population aging poses a mountingchallenge.Accordingly,this paper proposes improving the social security system to tackle aging,promoting regional coordination to narrow disparities,and establishing a public risk early warning mechanism.These recommendations provide a reference for the prevention and governance of urban social risks in Jiangsu and similar regions.