多样本可控飞行撞地事件致因关联分析OACSCD

To address the research gap regarding the causal correlations among incidents with varying consequence severities,this study adopts a Safety-Ⅱperspective and takes controlled flight into terrain(CFIT),a high-risk avia-tion accident category,as the research object to analyze the causal factors and the interrelationships across samples with distinct outcome levels.A total of 128 CFIT accident investigation reports from the Aviation Safety Network(ASN)and 354 voluntary reports from the Aviation Safety Reporting System(ASRS)are selected as the analytical sample.Guided by the threat and error management(TEM)model,a systematic analysis is conducted to identify la-tent conditions,threats,flight crew errors,undesired aircraft states,and countermeasures inherent in the sampled ac-cidents,which resulted in the identification of 3367 causal factors and 2169 causal-temporal relationships.Follow-ing semantic analysis and integration of these relationships,a Bayesian network(BN)model is constructed,result-ing in an accident evolution network model comprising 46 BN nodes.Association rule mining is employed to com-pute conditional probabilities and inter-node correlations,so as to delineate the high-probability causal chains of the samples.Results demonstrate that:①the primary high-risk pathway leading to CFIT accidents is:operational pres-sure→flight crew fatigue→loss of situational awareness→incorrect altimeter setting→aircraft deviation from the intended altitude profile.②When negative factors including flight crew fatigue(accounting for 57%of the iden-tified negative factors)and inadequate management by airlines/regulatory authorities(17%)are present,the proba-bility of CFIT accidents increases by 24%.③From the Safety-Ⅱperspective,when positive factors,such as avia-tion system response measures(with an effectiveness rate of 78%)and the execution of recovery actions(84%)take effect,the probability of a stable approach is enhanced by 34%,thereby significantly mitigating the risk of CFIT oc-currences.