区域水资源承载力综合评价方法研究进展OA

[Objective]The comprehensive evaluation of water resource carrying capacity(WRCC)is the link between the theoretical understanding and practical application of regional WRCC issues.The study summarizes the research progress on comprehensive WRCC evaluation methods over the past 40 years,aiming to explore the evolution characteristics and develop-ment challenges of these methods and provide references for more reasonable comprehensive evaluation of regional WRCC.[Methods]From the perspective of comprehensive evaluation methodology,and based on the three-element structural princi-ple of the structural water resources methodological system,this study systematically elaborates the research progress in three critical aspects during comprehensive evaluation processes of regional WRCC:evaluation theory,evaluation evidence,and evaluation methods.[Results](1)Existing studies on comprehensive WRCC evaluation have yet to form a relatively unified theoretical framework.Concepts and methods for process-oriented comprehensive WRCC evaluation are lacking.Current eval-uation indicator systems insufficiently reflect the characteristics of regional water resources carrying process.There is a lack of comprehensive evaluation methods for regional WRCC that simultaneously provide physical analysis of carrying processes and are highly applicable for quantitative calculation of uncertainties in carrying-balance relationships.(2)The relationship among the three elements,evaluation object(a),evaluation indicator(b),and evaluation objective(c),and their com-bined effects ab@bc=ac are clarified.Based on that,a general modeling process of comprehensive evaluation methods for re-gional WRCC is formed.This can be referred to as the relationship transmission principle of comprehensive WRCC evaluation methods.[Conclusion]The general modeling processes for the comprehensive evaluation of regional WRCC needs to focus on the following directions:identifying the regional WRCC elements,their influencing factors,and interaction relationships;revealing the mechanisms governing regional WRCC;analyzing the impact mechanisms of WRCC;constructing an evaluation indicator system with analytical capabilities for carrying processes;analyzing the relationship structure among regional evalua-tion objects,indicators,and objectives;and conducting methodological research on the comprehensive evaluation of regional WRCC oriented toward human-water harmony and high-quality development of water conservancy.