天山北坡"三生"空间优化与调控研究OA

This study takes the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains as the research area and focuses on the evolution patterns,driving factors,and optimal regulation strategies of its"production-living-ecological"(PLE)space.By constructing a multiscale evaluation index system and applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP),the Coupling Coordination Degree Model,and the Future Land Use Simulation model,integrated with multi-source data—including land use,topography,meteorology,and social economy—a systematic analysis of the dy-namic change characteristics and coordination of PLE spaces from 2010 to 2020 was conducted.The results dem-onstrate that,mainly influenced by urbanization,industrialization,and agricultural development,production space and living space expanded by 8.3%and 6.5%respectively,while ecological space decreased by 7.2%.Re-garding spatial distribution,agricultural production exhibited a trend of"retreating southward and advancing northward,"industrial production clustered along major transportation corridors,living space expanded outward with the Urumqi Urban Agglomeration as the core,and ecological space remained stable in high-altitude moun-tainous areas but degraded significantly in mid-to low-altitude regions.Multiscale integrated analysis demonstrat-ed typical spatial conflict types,such as urban expansion vs.cultivated land protection and agricultural develop-ment vs.ecological conservation.Based on simulation and optimization results,a regulation strategy character-ized by"core agglomeration,corridor connection,and zonal management"is proposed,offering a scientific basis for regional territorial spatial planning and sustainable development.This study introduces innovations in the sus-tainability evaluation of PLE space functions and multi-scale integration methods.However,future research should further quantify the impacts of climate change and policy interventions to optimize the model's dynamism and accuracy.