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陕西省城市气候承载力分析OA

Analysis of urban climate carrying capacity in Shaanxi Province

中文摘要英文摘要

利用2000-2022年陕西省10个城市气象数据和社会经济发展统计资料,构建包含自然-人文耦合因子的气候承载力评估体系,该体系涵盖气候天然容量、极端气候事件压力、城市气候压力及城市协调发展能力4个准则层,涉及年平均气温、工业总产值、环境保护投资等27项指标,深入探究了各城市气候承载力的变化特征及其驱动机制.旨在填补区域研究空白,完善评估体系,应对气候变化和城市化双重压力,支撑城市可持续发展.结果表明:研究期内多数城市的气候承载力呈上升趋势,表明城市气候系统对城市发展的容纳能力有所增强,平原区表现出更高的气候承载能力.延安、安康气候天然容量相对稳定,其他各市气候风险有放大的趋势;城市极端气候压力受暴雨、大风、高温等多重因子影响,波动变化较为剧烈;多数城市的气候压力呈显著的升高趋势,且随着城市化进程的快速推进,这一压力逐渐加大;所有城市的协调发展能力均呈显著的升高趋势,且增长速度显著高于城市气候压力.通过研究明确了陕西省各城市气候承载力时空分异特征,识别关键驱动因子与风险点,助力气候适应型城市建设,为资源型城市转型提供示范路径.

Based on the meteorological data and socio-economic development statistics of 10 cities in Shaanxi Province from 2000 to 2022,an evaluation system of climate carrying capacities comprising natural human cou-pling factors is constructed.The system covers four criteria levels,including natural climate capacity,extreme cli-mate event pressure,urban climate pressure,and urban coordinated development ability,involving 27 indicators,including annual average temperature,total industrial output value,and environmental protection investment.The change characteristics and driving mechanism of each city's climate carrying capacity are deeply explored to fill the regional research gap,improve the evaluation system,handle the dual pressure of climate change and urban-ization,and support the sustainable development of cities.The results show that the climate carrying capacity of most cities exhibited an upward trend during the study period,indicating that the capacity of the climate system for urban development has been enhanced,and plain areas exhibited higher climate carrying capacities.The natu-ral climate capacities of Yan'an and Ankang are relatively stable,and the climate risk of other cities tends to in-crease.The urban extreme climate pressure is affected by multiple factors,such as rainstorms,gales,and high temperatures,and fluctuates violently.The climate pressure of most cities showed a notable upward trend,and this pressure gradually increased with rapid urbanization.The coordinated development capacity of all cities showed a prominent upward trend,and the growth rate was substantially higher than that of the urban climate pressure.By studying and clarifying the spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics of the climate carrying ca-pacities of cities in Shaanxi Province,we can identify the key driving factors and risk points,facilitate the con-struction of climate-adaptive cities,and provide a demonstration path for resource-based city transformation.

张高健;惠英;曲静;杨睿;蔡惠文

西安市气象局,陕西 西安 710016陕西省气象科学研究所,陕西 西安 710016西安市气象局,陕西 西安 710016西安市气象局,陕西 西安 710016西安市气象局,陕西 西安 710016

气候承载力定量评估城市化气候变暖陕西省

climate carrying capacityquantitative assessmenturbanizationclimate warmingShaanxi Prov-ince

《干旱区研究》 2026 (2)

224-235,12

中国气象局秦岭和黄土高原生态环境气象重点实验室开放基金课题(2024G-42)陕西省自然科学重点研发计划项目(2025NC-YBXM-305)陕西省自然科学基础研究计划项目(2025JC-YBMS-325,2025JC-YBMS-347)

10.13866/j.azr.2026.02.02

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