多类型电力市场主体有效容量差异化评估方法研究OA

The high proportion of renewable energy grid integration imposes greater demands on the adequacy of various regulatory capacities,including peak shaving,frequency regulation,ramping,and reserve capacity.Currently,China has initiated capacity compensation mechanisms based on capacity pricing but has yet to establish a capacity market.Market mechanism designs—including compensation calculations,cost allocation,and balancing responsibility assignment—remain constrained by the absence of assessment methods for evaluating the flexible regulation contributions of different types of entities.Therefore,there is an urgent need to develop a differentiated assessment method for effective capacity across multiple entities.This approach will provide theoretical support for advancing China's capacity pricing compensation mechanisms,capacity market development,and the design of market systems for reserve,ramping,and ancillary services. The proposed multi-type entities effective capacity assessment methodology integrates historical forecast and actual output data of the subject units,operational and regulation performance parameters,along with historical system load data and inter-provincial interconnection data.It differentiates the assessment of system power,frequency regulation,ramping capability,and reserve capacity performance for various unit types from the perspectives of power contribution during critical periods and flexible regulation capability.The fuzzy TOPSIS method resolves uncertainties and ambiguities in unit reliability levels,reasonably reflecting different unit types'ability to ensure long-term system capacity adequacy and respond to short-term regulation demands.Furthermore,this study quantifies the system's demand for different capacity types and their value by calculating multi-type capacity supply-demand coefficients and system capacity shortfall risk indicators.Based on this,the effective capacity correlation coefficients for diverse units under multi-type capacity demands are computed using a unified evaluation model and process. The paper designs quantitative indicators for unit reliability levels by considering power contributions during critical periods and flexible regulation capabilities.It proposes system capacity value assessment indicators that incorporate multi-type capacity supply-demand coefficients and capacity shortfall risks to determine the actual contribution capacity of different unit types toward supporting system capacity adequacy and flexibility.Through case study analysis,this paper quantitatively calculates the reliability assessments and system capacity values of different units,thereby enabling differentiated evaluations of the effective capacity of various unit types.The case study validates that the proposed effective capacity evaluation method can assess differentiated effective capacities for various entities,including renewable energy sources,under different seasonal conditions.Simultaneously,the case study conducts a differentiated dynamic assessment of changes in the effective capacity coefficients of various entities under different capacity supply-demand scenarios,further demonstrating the applicability of the proposed multi-entity effective capacity evaluation method to changes in system capacity supply-demand conditions. This multi-type entities effective capacity evaluation method balances agent reliability levels and system capacity value,providing a rational approach to quantify the differentiated contributions of various agents to power system capacity adequacy.It lays a theoretical foundation for China to explore establishing reliable capacity assessment mechanisms for diverse agents and developing capacity compensation mechanisms tailored to different agent types.