信息-物理-社会融合的综合需求响应风险管理OA

With the development of Energy Internet and multi-energy system(MES),response behaviors on the demand side show the characteristic of complex multi-dimensional cyber-physical-social coupling.To enhance the scheduling capability of multi-energy service providers(MESPs)over demand-side resources and mitigate the response risks caused by user response deviations,it is necessary to fully consider the response characteristics of users when implementing integrated demand response(IDR),and develop effective risk management strategies.Firstly,at the cyber-physical level,the substitutable characteristics of multi-energy coupling and the dynamic fatigue characteristics across multiple time periods are considered.At the social level,a rationality factor and a cognitive weighting function are introduced to characterize the incomplete cognitive rationality of users in social contexts.Secondly,a risk correlation matrix is built to achieve the quantitative characterization of strongly correlated IDR risks,which are then decoupled via orthogonal diagonalization.Furthermore,Shannon entropy is used to construct a risk dispersion index,and a risk dispersion management strategy of IDR with cyber-physical-social fusion is proposed.Finally,through the simulation,it shows that the proposed model not only reduces the risk losses for the MESP,but also increases the benefits of users for participating in IDR,achieving a win-win situation for all parties involved.