库车铜场水库流域汛期降雨与洪水响应关系研究OA
Analysis of the Relationship between Flood Season Rainfall and Flood Response in the Tongchang Reservoir Basin,Kuche City
针对新疆干旱区库车铜场水库流域洪水形成机制不明、预警指标缺失的问题,利用该流域2013-2023年日观测数据,基于百分位法与P-Ⅲ型分布曲线,量化分析了极端降水与洪峰流量的响应关系及致洪面雨量阈值.结果表明:(1)该流域洪水对短历时降雨响应敏感,面雨量与径流量呈现显著正相关关系(R=0.65);(2)相同洪水等级下不同重现期的致洪面雨量阈值不同,发生5年一遇与10年一遇的中等洪水时,面雨量临界值分别为22、26 mm;发生50年一遇与100年一遇的特大洪水时,面雨量临界值分别为35、39 mm.研究成果明确了该流域的致洪临界降雨指标,可为水库汛期防洪调度及洪水预报提供科学依据.
To address the unclear flood formation mechanisms and the lack of early warning indicators in the arid Kuche Tongchang Reservoir basin of Xinjiang,this study analyzed daily observational data from 2013 to 2023.Employing the percentile method and the Pearson Type Ⅲ(P-Ⅲ)distribution curve,the relationship between extreme precipitation and peak discharge,and the areal rainfall thresholds for flood induction are quantified.The results indicate the following:(1)Floods in the basin are highly sensitive to short-duration rainfall,exhibiting a significant positive correlation between areal rainfall and runoff(R=0.65).(2)The critical areal rainfall thresholds vary with different return periods for the same flood classification.Specifically,for medium floods with 5-year and 10-year return periods,the critical values are 22 mm and 26 mm,respectively;for extraordinary floods with 50-year and 100-year return periods,the critical values are 35 mm and 39 mm,respectively.These findings clarify the critical rainfall thresholds for flood induction in the Tongchang reservoir basin,providing a scientific basis for flood control scheduling and forecasting during the flood season.
王建文;运晓博;李海花;包红军
南京信息工程大学,水文与水资源工程学院,江苏 南京 210044国家气象中心,北京 100081||中国气象局水文气象重点开放实验室,北京 100081新疆维吾尔自治区气象台,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830002南京信息工程大学,水文与水资源工程学院,江苏 南京 210044||国家气象中心,北京 100081||中国气象局水文气象重点开放实验室,北京 100081
农业科技
极端降水致洪临界面雨量铜场水库
extreme precipitationcritical flood-inducing areal rainfallTongchang Reservoir
《沙漠与绿洲气象》 2026 (1)
76-82,7
新疆维吾尔自治区重点研发任务专项(2022B03027-3)中国气象局水文气象重点开放实验室开放课题(23SWQXM040)内蒙古自治区自然科学基金项目(2023LHMS04007)
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