高分辨率多源融合降水数据在新疆伊犁地区夏季检验分析OA
Validation and Analysis of High-Resolution Multi-Source Merged Precipitation Data in the Ili Region of Xinjiang during Summer
采用中国气象局2024年6-8月逐时高分辨率多源融合降水数据(HCLDAS),结合伊犁地区287个气象观测站数据,通过晴雨准确率(PC)、威胁评分(TS)、公平威胁评分(ETS)等检验指标,系统评估HCLDAS的适用性,分析新疆伊犁夏季降水时空分布特征.结果表明:(1)HCLDAS在伊犁地区表现良好,除大暴雨等级(ETS=0.75)外,其余降水等级的ETS评分均高于0.83,平均绝对误差(MAE)<0.31 mm,验证了其在复杂地形下的可靠性.(2)夏季总降水量达8.26亿t,其中海拔1 500 m以上区域贡献74.93%,单位面积的最大降水量出现在海拔(2 000,2 500]m.(3)降水时空分异显著,8月累计降水量最多,主要降水区集中于伊犁河谷、尼勒克县东部和霍城县北部山区;暴雨在海拔(1 500,2 000]m持续时间最长,为1.37 d,极端降水集中在海拔(500,1 000]m,为1.07 d.(4)21:00-22:00为降水高峰,11:00-14:00降水较少.
This study analyzed the spatiotemporal variations of summer precipitation in the Ili region of Xinjiang,on the basis of hourly high-resolution(0.01°×0.01°)multi-source merged precipitation data(HCLDAS)from the China Meteorological Administration(June-August 2024)and observations from 287 meteorological stations.The applicability of HCLDAS was systematically evaluated using metrics such as Precipitation Correctness(PC),Threat Score(TS),and Equitable Threat Score(ETS).The results indicate:(1)HCLDAS performed well in the Ili region,with ETS scores exceeding 0.83 for all precipitation categories except extreme rain(ETS=0.75),and a mean absolute error(MAE)below 0.31 mm,confirming its reliability in complex terrain.(2)The total summer precipitation reached 826 million tons,with areas above 1 500 m elevation contributing 74.93%.The maximum precipitation per unit area occurred within the 2 000-2 500 m elevation zone.(3)Pronounced spatiotemporal heterogeneity was observed.August recorded the highest cumulative precipitation.Key precipitation zones were concentrated in the Ili River Valley,eastern Nilka County,and the mountainous areas of northern Huocheng County.Torrential rain events lasted the longest(1.37 days)at 1 500-2 000 m,while extreme precipitation was most persistent(1.07 days)at 500-1 000 m.(4)Diurnal variation analysis revealed peak precipitation from 21:00 to 22:00(Beijing Time),with the lowest rainfall occurring around midday(11:00-14:00).
江远安;王命全;张祖莲;唐冶
新疆维吾尔自治区气象台,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830002新疆维吾尔自治区数据资源和政务服务中心,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830000新疆大学,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830017||新疆维吾尔自治区农业气象台,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830017||新疆农业气象防灾减灾工程技术研究中心,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830002新疆维吾尔自治区气象台,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830002
天文与地球科学
伊犁多源融合降水数据时空分布夏季降水高分辨率
Ilimulti-source merged precipitation dataspatiotemporal distributionsummer precipitationhigh-resolution
《沙漠与绿洲气象》 2026 (1)
68-75,8
新疆维吾尔自治区重点研发任务专项(2022B03027-2)天山英才三农骨干现代农牧业高层次发展人才项目(2024SNGGGCC038)新疆维吾尔自治区气象局重点项目(ZD202503)新疆大学研究生创新项目(XJDX2025YJS067)
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