中国能源新质生产力发展水平测度、区域差异和动态演进分析OA
Measurement,regional differences and dynamic evolution of new quality productive forces development in China's energy field
在实现"双碳"目标和深入推进能源革命的背景下,科学评估能源新质生产力的发展水平已成为一项推动能源高质量发展的关键议题.从能源新质生产力的催生要素出发,构建了包含4个一级指标、7个二级指标和13个三级指标的能源新质生产力发展水平测度指标体系,运用时变权重CRITIC法确定了指标权重,结合TOPSIS方法对中国2012-2023年间30个省份的能源新质生产力发展水平进行了测度,利用Dagum基尼系数分解法分析了其区域差异,并采用传统Markov链与空间Markov链探讨了其动态演进特征和空间收敛机制.结果表明:2012年以来中国能源新质生产力发展水平整体呈现稳步增长态势,东部地区持续保持领先优势,中西部地区呈稳步追赶态势,区域差异趋于收敛,空间格局持续优化;各发展等级间存在较强的自循环性和向上跃迁趋势,高水平区域展现出显著的引领作用和正向溢出效应;颠覆性能源科技创新成果数量、能源工业R&D经费内部支出占比、新能源发电占比、能源工业R&D人员占比以及能源数字化智能化转型程度是影响中国能源新质生产力发展水平的主要因素.研究结果为促进中国能源新质生产力的协同演进与高质量发展提供了一定的实践参考.
Under the dual imperatives of China's"carbon peaking and carbon neutrality"targets and the ongoing energy revolution,a scientific assessment of the development level of New Quality Produc-tive Forces of Energy has become essential for promoting high-quality energy development.To address these shortcomings,this research develops a multidimensional evaluation index system based on the driving factors of New Quality Productive Forces of Energy.We employ the CRITIC method with time-varying weights to derive indicator weights and apply the TOPSIS model to assess development levels across 30 Chinese provinces from 2012 to 2023.Further,we decompose regional disparities using the Dagum Gini coefficient and investigate dynamic evolution characteristics via both traditional and spatial Markov chains.The results show that since 2012 China's New Quality Productive Forces of Energy has increased steadily nationwide;the eastern region has maintained a persistent lead,while the central and western regions are catching up;regional disparities tend to converge and the spatial pattern continues to optimize.There is strong state persistence and upward mobility across development tiers,with high-level regions exhibiting pronounced leadership and positive spillover effects.Moreover,the number of disruptive energy technology innovations,the intensity of internal R&D expenditure in the energy indus-try,the share of renewable power generation,the intensity of R&D personnel in the energy industry,and the degree of digital-intelligent transformation in the energy sector are the principal factors shaping the development level of China's New Quality Productive Forces of Energy.The findings provide practical insights for promoting the coordinated evolution and high-quality development of China's New Quality Productive Forces of Energy.
金刚;张金锁;许建
西安科技大学能源与矿业工程学院,陕西西安 710054||陕西省能源产业绿色低碳发展软科学研究基地,陕西延安 716000陕西省能源产业绿色低碳发展软科学研究基地,陕西延安 716000||延安大学经济与管理学院,陕西延安 716000陕西省能源产业绿色低碳发展软科学研究基地,陕西延安 716000||延安大学经济与管理学院,陕西延安 716000||西安科技大学管理学院,陕西西安 710054
矿业与冶金
能源新质生产力发展水平统计测度区域差异动态演进空间分解
new quality productive forces of energydevelopment levelstatistical measurementregion-al differencesdynamic evolutionspatial convergence
《西安科技大学学报》 2026 (1)
27-37,11
国家自然科学基金项目(71273206)教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(22YJA630100)
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