基于PLUS-InVEST模型的东北黑土区景观格局与碳储量变化多情景模拟OA

Investigating the impact mechanisms of landscape pattern changes on regional carbon storage is of great significance for optimizing landscape structure,enhancing ecosystem carbon sink capacity,and ensuring regional ecological and food security.This study focuses on the black soil region of the Northeast,analyzing the characteristics of landscape pattern changes and carbon storage evolution from 1990 to 2020.The trends of landscape patterns and carbon storage under three scenarios(natural development,ecological protection and food production increase)for 2050 were simulated using the PLUS-InVEST model.The results show that:1)From 1990 to 2020,the landscape in the study area was dominated by cropland,forestland,and grassland,accounting for more than 87.61%of the total.The area of cropland and artificial surfaces continued to increase,while grassland area decreased at an accelerating rate.2)From 2020 to 2050,under the natural development scenario,the areas of cropland and forestland increased significantly,while grassland and bare land areas decreased.Under the ecological protection scenario,forestland area expanded substantially,whereas artificial surfaces and grassland areas diminished.The food production increase scenario was characterized by a sharp surge in cropland.3)From 1990 to 2020,carbon storage exhibited a spatial distribution pattern of"high in the east and low in the west,high in mountainous areas and low in plains,"with a declining trend year by year.The cumulative total reduction reached 479.6 Tg.Carbon storage was primarily contributed by forestland and wetland,with high-carbon-density areas mainly consisting of forestland and wetland,while low-value areas were predominantly cropland and grassland.4)From 2020 to 2050,under the natural development and ecological protection scenarios,carbon storage increased significantly by 38.0 Tg and 197.4 Tg,respectively.In contrast,under the food production increase scenario,carbon storage decreased markedly by 261.0 Tg due to the increased probability of land conversion from forestland,wetland,and grassland to cropland.The findings of this study provide a scientific basis and decision-making support for future landscape planning and ecological protection strategies in the black soil region of Northeast,promoting the sustainable management of ecosystem services.