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基于INFO优化CNN-BiLSTM混合网络模型的光伏发电站功率预测研究OA

Research on Power Prediction of Photovoltaic Power Station Based on INFO Optimization CNN-BiLSTM Hybrid Network Model

中文摘要英文摘要

光伏发电功率的准确预测对于优化能源管理和电网规划及优化调度具有重要的意义.针对以往光伏发电功率预测方法预测精度不高,传统混合网络模型存在参数选择不确定性和收敛速度较慢的问题,基于历史气象数据和光伏发电数据,提出一种结合向量加权平均(weighted mean of vectors,INFO)算法、卷积网络(convolutional neural network,CNN)和双向长短期记忆网络(bi-directional long short-term memory,BiLSTM)的光伏发电功率预测方法.首先,选取与光伏发电功率预测相关的多种气象因素,含太阳辐射、温度、湿度、风速、气压等气象参数,并分析它们与光伏发电功率之间的关系,然后使用INFO算法对CNN-BiLSTM混合网络预测模型的隐藏层节点数、初始学习率和L2正则化系数进行优化,INFO算法通过自适应调整这些参数,缩短了手动调制参数的时间,提高了超参数设置的精度和效率.实验结果表明,通过INFO算法优化的CNN-BiLSTM混合网络相比传统CNN-BiLSTM混合网络具有更高的预测精度.

The accurate prediction of photovoltaic power generation is of great significance to optimize energy management and grid planning.Aiming at the problems of low prediction accuracy of previous photovoltaic power forecasting methods,insufficient mining of input characteristic information,uncertainty of parameter selection and slow convergence of CNN-BILSTM hybrid network model,based on historical meteorological data and photovoltaic power generation data,This paper proposes a new algorithm combining vector weighted mode decomposition INFO and CNN and BiLSTM neural network for photovoltaic power generation prediction.First of all,a large number of measured data are collected,including solar radiation,temperature,humidity,wind speed,air pressure and other meteorological parameters,as well as the corresponding photovoltaic power generation.Then,a prediction model based on CNN-BiLSTM hybrid network is constructed,and the INFO algorithm is used to optimize the number of hidden layer nodes,initial learning rate and L2 regularization coefficient.By adaptively adjusting these parameters,the INFO algorithm shorens the time of manual parameter modulation and improves the accuracy and efficiency of hyperparameter setting.The experimental results show that the CNN-BiLSTM hybrid network optimized by INFO algorithm has higher prediction accuracy and better generalization ability than the traditional CNN-BiLSTM hybrid network.

成贵学;马海洋

上海电力大学计算机科学与技术学院,上海市 浦东新区 201306上海电力大学计算机科学与技术学院,上海市 浦东新区 201306

信息技术与安全科学

光伏功率预测向量加权平均算法卷积神经网络双向长短期记忆神经网络

photovoltaic power predictionweighted mean of vectorsconvolutional neural networkbi-directional long short-term memory neural network

《全球能源互联网》 2026 (1)

36-44,9

10.19705/j.cnki.issn2096-5125.20240259

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