首页|期刊导航|吉首大学学报(自然科学版)|基于VMD-CNN-BiLSTM-RF模型的短期光伏发电功率预测

基于VMD-CNN-BiLSTM-RF模型的短期光伏发电功率预测OA

Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Prediction Based on VMD-CNN-BiLSTM-RF

中文摘要英文摘要

针对光伏发电功率受天气影响导致的非平稳性、噪声干扰和时空耦合效应问题,设计了一种基于变分模态分解(VMD)、卷积神经网络(CNN)、双向长短期记忆网络(BiLSTM)和随机森林(RF)的短期功率预测组合模型——VMD-CNN-BiLSTM-RF.该组合模型利用VMD将原始功率序列分解为多个平稳子模态,降低噪声及非平稳性影响;通过CNN-BiL-STM同时捕捉时间序列数据的空间特征和时间依赖关系,提高预测的准确性;采用RF集成各子模态预测结果,提升模型的泛化能力.基于 Matlab平台搭建实验环境,对VMD-CNN-BiLSTM-RF组合模型开展对比实验和误差分析,结果表明VMD-CNN-BiLSTM-RF组合模型明显提升了短期光伏发电功率预测精度和鲁棒性.

In response to the non-stationary nature and noise interference caused by weather affected pho-tovoltaic power generation,as well as the spatiotemporal coupling effect,a short-term power prediction composite model VMD-CNN-BiLSTM-RF based on Variational Mode Decomposition(VMD),Convolu-tional Neural Network(CNN),Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory(BiLSTM),and Random Forest(RF)is proposed.This model uses VMD to decompose the original power sequence into multiple station-ary sub-modes,reducing the impact of noise and non-stationarity.It combines CNN with BiLSTM to sim-ultaneously capture spatial features and temporal dependencies of time series data,improving the accura-cy of predictions.RF is integrated with sub-model prediction results to enhance the model's generalization ability.An experimental environment was set up on the Matlab platform to conduct comparative experi-ments and error analysis for the VMD-CNN-BiLSTM-RF combined model.The results show that this model has significantly improved the accuracy and robustness of short-term photovoltaic power genera-tion prediction.

李立

安庆职业技术学院信息技术学院,安徽 安庆 246003

信息技术与安全科学

光伏发电功率预测变分模态分解卷积神经网络双向长短期记忆网络随机森林

photovoltaic powergeneration predictionvariational mode decompositionconvolutional neu-ral networkbidirectional long-term and short-term memory networkrandom forest

《吉首大学学报(自然科学版)》 2026 (1)

41-48,8

安徽省高校自然科学研究重点项目(2024AH051153,2023AH053075)

10.13438/j.cnki.jdzk.2026.01.007

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