基于STPA和模糊贝叶斯网络的大型无人驾驶航空器运行风险分析OA

The system theory process analysis(STPA)method used to identify the operational risk factors,which is in the qualitative analysis stage,and can not accurately analyze the impact of each factor on system safety.In order to reduce the risk of accidents during the operation of large unmanned aerial vehicles,the main roles,respon-sibilities and scenarios in the operational process are analyzed.The system theory process analysis method is used to construct a control feedback structure to identify risk factors.Based on the correlation between factors,the Bayes-ian network(BN)is constructed,and the GeNIe software is used to carry out the forward causal inference on the risk probability,and the key factors are determined through reverse reasoning,sensitivity analysis and impact inten-sity analysis.The results show that control failure is the most critical factor leading to accidents.Navigation system failure,bad weather,and battery failure are highly sensitive factors,and the analysis results obtained in this paper can provide the basis for the prevention and control of large-scale unmanned aircraft operation risks.