基于CCA与可靠性理论的非常规设备失效概率综合评估OA

In view of the deficiencies of Cause-Consequence Analysis(CCA)in system definition,logical construction and data sources,three principles of"clear type of initial event,assessable severity of conse-quences,and quantifiable possibility of occurrence"were proposed.A standardized process for personnel and e-quipment reliability data was established.By integrating the system reliability theory,a structured,comprehen-sive risk assessment framework was constructed.Taking motor overheating as an example for case application,the results show that:This method can effectively assess the failure probability of unconventional equipment(re-ferring to equipment lacking sufficient historical failure data or coverage by a standard failure probability data-base).The calculated probability of fire caused by the failure of all safety measures was 1.4×10-6 a-1.The magnitude is in line with industry standard reference values.This provides a systematic and reproducible assess-ment solution,suitable for estimating the failure probability of unconventional equipment lacking historical data.