淮河生态经济带新型城镇化与城市韧性耦合协调发展分析OA
Coupling Coordination Analysis of New Urbanization and Urban Resilience in the Huaihe River Ecological Economic Belt
文章通过构建新型城镇化及城市韧性评价体系,运用熵值法和CRITIC法测算出淮河生态经济带25个城市的新型城镇化和城市韧性发展水平,借助耦合协调度模型测度耦合协调发展状况,并利用空间自相关模型与面板Tobit模型对耦合协调度的空间集聚类型和关键影响因子进行探讨.结果表明:(1)新型城镇化与城市韧性发展水平均呈上升趋势,分别表现为"北部高,南部低"的两极格局与"东北部较高,西南部较低"的空间分布特征.(2)耦合协调发展水平稳步上升,失调类型城市逐步转向协调类型城市;耦合协调度存在明显的空间集聚特征,北部主要表现为高-高聚集,中部则表现为低-低聚集.(3)正向影响因素的强度表现为经济发展水平>风险应对能力>科技创新能力>基础设施建设水平>市场需求能力>城市对外开放水平>生态建设水平>社会建设程度.研究成果可为淮河生态经济带城市新型城镇化发展提供科学的决策参考,促进区域内城市发展与韧性建设实现均衡协同.
In this paper,by constructing a new urbanization and urban resilience evaluation system,the entropy method and CRITIC method were used to calculate the development level of new urbanization and urban resilience in 25 cities in the Huaihe River Ecological Economic Belt.The coupling coordination degree model was used to measure the coupling coordination development status,and the spatial autocorrelation model and panel Tobit model were used to explore the spatial agglomeration types and key influencing factors of coupling coordination.The results show that:(1)Both of the level of new urbanization and urban resilience development are on the rise,manifested as a bipolar pattern of"high in the north and low in the south"and a spatial distribution feature of"high in the northeast and low in the southwest".(2)The level of coupled and coordinated development is steadily increasing,and cities with imbalanced types are gradually shifting towards coordinated types.The coupling coordination degree exhibits obvious spatial clustering characteristics,with high-high clustering in the north and low-low clustering in the middle.(3)The strength of positive influencing factors is manifested as follows:economic development level>risk response capability>technological innovation capability>infrastructure construction level>market demand capability>urban opening-up level>ecological construction level>social construction level.The research results can provide scientific decision-making references for the new urbanization development of cities in the Huaihe River Ecological Economic Belt,and promote the balanced and coordinated development and resilience construction of cities in the region.
张恒;李爽;郑兵云
安徽财经大学 管理科学与工程学院,安徽 蚌埠 233030中国矿业大学 力学与土木工程学院,江苏 徐州 221116安徽财经大学 管理科学与工程学院,安徽 蚌埠 233030
管理科学
新型城镇化城市韧性耦合协调度模型淮河生态经济带
New urbanizationUrban resilienceCoupling coordination modelHuaihe River Ecological Economic Belt
《新疆师范大学学报(自然科学版)》 2026 (2)
11-22,12
安徽财经大学校级科研重点项目(ACKYB24015).
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