基于数据增强技术的大坝变形GRU预测模型OA
GRU Prediction Model for Dam Deformation Using Data Augmentation Technology
大坝变形预测模型性能依赖于高质量的数据输入,然而不少工程存在监测资料稀疏或缺失问题.选取水压、温度、时效等为变形效应量影响因子,构建大坝变形门控循环单元(gated recur-rent unit,GRU)预测模型.针对实测变形效应量样本较少的情况,引入SMOTE、GAN、GMM、Diffusion模型4种生成式数据增强算法,扩充样本异质性,增强GRU模型学习信息广度.以某混凝土大坝坝顶径向位移为研究对象,建立基于数据增强技术的大坝变形GRU预测模型.结果表明,原始数据集经GAN、GMM、Diffusion模型增强后,能够提高GRU预测模型精度,可分别将拟合优度由0.925提高至0.940、0.932、0.959.综合分析评价指标,基于Diffusion模型增强的GRU变形预测模型性能最优,可作为大坝变形数据增强处理优选方法.借助可解释机器学习领域中的SHAP(SHapley Additive exPlanations)分析对效应量影响因子进行显著性分析,结果表明:温度因子对大坝变形影响最为显著,上游水位和时效因子亦存在一定影响,下游水位影响偏小.
The accuracy of dam deformation prediction models depends on high-quality data inputs;however,many projects face the issue of sparse or missing monitoring data.Water pressure,temperature,and time effects were selected as deformation influence factors to construct a dam deformation prediction model using a gated recurrent unit(GRU).To address the limited samples of measured deformation data,four generative data augmentation algorithms,i.e.,SMOTE,GAN,GMM,and Diffusion models,were employed to expand sample heterogeneity and broaden the model's learning scope.Results demonstrate that datasets enhanced by GAN,GMM,and Diffusion models improved the GRU model's accuracy,increasing the goodness of fitting from 0.925 to 0.940,0.932,and 0.959 respectively.Based on comprehensive analysis of evaluation metrics,the GRU deformation prediction model enhanced by the Diffusion model demonstrates the most outstanding performance and generalization ability,making it the preferred method for dam deformation data enhancement processing.SHapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP)analysis reveals that temperature is the most significant factor affecting dam deformation,with upstream water level and time effects also showing notable influence,while downstream water level has minimal impact.
任杰;李嫦玲;李萌;李星
南京水利科学研究院,南京 210000水利部基本建设工程质量检测中心,南京 210000南京水利科学研究院,南京 210000水利部基本建设工程质量检测中心,南京 210000
建筑与水利
混凝土坝变形预测GRU模型数据增强SHAP分析
concrete damdeformation predictionGRU modeldata augmentationSHAP analysis
《三峡大学学报(自然科学版)》 2026 (1)
1-7,7
国家自然科学基金项目(52209165)中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金项目(Yk725001)
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