1990-2021年中国、韩国及日本肺癌疾病负担及未来患病趋势分析OA
Disease Burden and Future Prevalence Trends of Lung Cancer in China,South Korea,and Japan from 1990 to 2021
目的 比较1990-2021年中国、韩国及日本肺癌疾病负担,并预测其未来患病趋势,以期为我国制定针对性的肺癌防控策略提供参考.方法 从全球疾病负担(GBD)2021数据中收集中国、韩国、日本1990-2021年肺癌发病、患病、死亡、伤残调整寿命年(DALY)例数及其年龄标准化率[包括年龄标准化发病率(ASIR)、年龄标准化患病率(ASPR)、年龄标准化死亡率(ASMR)及年龄标准化DALY率(ASDR)];然后使用Joinpoint软件计算各年龄标准化率的平均年百分比变化(AAPC)及其95%CI,以反映疾病负担趋势;使用R软件对各年龄标准化率进行可视化分析;采用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列(BAPC)模型预测2022-2036年中国、韩国及日本ASPR,以预测未来肺癌患病趋势.结果 与1990年相比,2021年中国肺癌新发例数增长了240.2%,韩国增长了251.4%,日本增长了131.2%.1990-2021年,中国和韩国ASIR呈上升趋势(AAPC值分别为0.94%、0.58%),日本ASIR呈下降趋势(AAPC=-0.12%).与1990年相比,2021年中国肺癌患病例数增长了318.0%,韩国增长了571.6%,日本增长了178.8%.1990-2021年,中国、韩国、日本ASPR呈上升趋势(AAPC值分别为1.81%、2.64%、0.92%).与1990年相比,2021年中国肺癌死亡例数增长了192.7%,韩国增长了189.4%,日本增长了115.9%.1990-2021年,中国ASMR呈上升趋势(AAPC=0.38%),韩国和日本ASMR呈下降趋势(AAPC值分别为-0.48%、-0.60%).与1990年相比,2021年中国肺癌DALY例数增长了143.8%,韩国增长了99.7%,日本增长了57.4%.1990-2021年,中国ASDR呈上升趋势(AAPC=0.06%),韩国和日本ASDR呈下降趋势(AAPC值分别为-1.27%、-0.93%).BAPC模型分析结果显示,与2021年相比,预测到2036年中国ASPR将增长86.9%,韩国将增长36.0%,日本将增长3.9%.结论 1990-2021年,中国、韩国和日本肺癌疾病负担存在显著差异,其中中国肺癌新发、死亡、DALY率增长迅速,而韩国肺癌患病率增长迅速;未来中国肺癌患病率进一步升高,且明显高于韩国和日本.
Objective To compare the disease burden of lung cancer in China,South Korea,and Japan from 1990 to 2021,and predict future disease trends,in order to provide reference for developing targeted lung cancer prevention and control strategies in China.Methods From the GBD 2021 data,we collected information on the incidence,prevalence,deaths,and disability-adjusted life year(DALY)cases of lung cancer in China,South Korea,and Japan from 1990 to 2021,as well as their age-standardized rates[including age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR),age-standardized prevalence rate(ASPR),age-standardized mortality rate(ASMR),and age-standardized DALY rate(ASDR)];then,Joinpoint software was used to calculate the average annual percentage change(AAPC)and its 95%CI for each age-standardized rate,in order to reflect disease burden trends;R software was used for visual analysis of each age-standardized rate;and the Bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC)model was employed to predict the ASPR in China,South Korea,and Japan from 2022 to 2036,in order to predict future trends in lung cancer prevalence.Results Compared with 1990,the number of new lung cancer cases in China increased by 240.2% in 2021,while that in South Korea increased by 251.4% and that in Japan increased by 131.2%.From 1990 to 2021,ASIR showed an upward trend in China and South Korea(AAPC values were 0.94% and 0.58%),while ASIR exhibited a downward trend in Japan(AAPC=-0.12%).Compared with 1990,the number of lung cancer cases in China increased by 318.0% in 2021,that in South Korea increased by 571.6%,and that in Japan increased by 178.8%.From 1990 to 2021,ASPR showed upward trend in China,South Korea and Japan(AAPC values were 1.81%,2.64% and 0.92%).Compared with 1990,lung cancer deaths in China increased by 192.7% in 2021,that in South Korea increased by 189.4%,and that in Japan increased by 115.9%.From 1990 to 2021,ASMR showed an upward trend in China(AAPC=0.38%),ASMR exhibited a downward trend in South Korea and Japan(AAPC values were-0.48% and-0.60%).Compared with 1990,lung cancer DALY in China increased by 143.8% in 2021,that in South Korea increased by 99.7%,and that in Japan increased by 57.4%.From 1990 to 2021,ASDR showed an upward trend in China(AAPC=0.06%),ASDR showed a downward trend in South Korea and Japan(AAPC values were-1.27% and-0.93%).BAPC model analysis indicates that compared with 2021,ASPR in China was projected to increase by 86.9% in 2036,that in South Korea was projected to increase by 36.0%,and that in Japan was projected to increase by 3.9%.Conclusion From 1990 to 2021,the burden of lung cancer differs significantly among China,South Korea,and Japan.China experiences rapid increases in new lung cancer cases,deaths,and DALY rates,while South Korea sees a rapid rise in lung cancer prevalence.In the future,lung cancer prevalence in China is projected to rise further,remaining markedly higher than that in South Korea and Japan.
李静;何杰;尹昕然;雷震
637000 四川省南充市,川北医学院附属医院呼吸与危重症医学科637000 四川省南充市,川北医学院附属医院呼吸与危重症医学科637000 四川省南充市,川北医学院附属医院呼吸与危重症医学科637000 四川省南充市,川北医学院附属医院呼吸与危重症医学科
医药卫生
肺肿瘤中国韩国日本疾病负担
Lung neoplasmsChinaSouth KoreaJapanDisease burden
《实用心脑肺血管病杂志》 2026 (3)
10-14,5
评论