三维视角下基于CMIP6气候模式的黄河流域干旱动态演变预测OA

This study utilizes CMIP6 meteorological data under the SSP585 scenario to drive the VIC hydrological model in the Yellow River Basin.Based on simulated hydrological elements,the monthly comprehensive drought index is calculated,and the evolution law of future drought events in the Yellow River Basin is analyzed from a three-dimensional perspective.The results show that under the SSP585 scenario,the severity of drought events in the Yellow River Basin shows a progressively intensifying trend,with future severe droughts mostly concentrated in eastern Gansu,southern Ningxia,and western Shaanxi.Based on drought event three-dimensional identification,a total of 172 spatiotemporally continuous drought events were identified in the Yellow River Basin from 2021 to 2070.A detailed analysis of one of the typical complex drought events that lasted for 16 months(the 138th event)shows that its evolution process includes seven stages:occurrence,strengthening,attenuation,re strengthening,peak,re-attenuation,and extinction.The migration path of the drought center is roughly in the northeast direction.Under the SSP585 scenario,future seasonal droughts in the Yellow River Basin are projected to migrate predominantly eastward(southeastward and northeastward),with spring droughts having the shortest average migration distance and summer droughts the longest.