基于CMIP6的岷沱江流域径流预估OA
Predicting Future Runoff in the Minjiang-Tuojiang River Basin Using CMIP6
揭示岷沱江流域未来径流变化趋势,为岷沱江流域水资源管理和决策提供科学依据.基于SWAT模型和第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6),采用 6 个全球气候模式(GCMs)的多模式集合平均(MME),将基准期(1981-2014年)与未来2个时期2017-2050年和2057-2090年对比,评估 4 种不同的共享社会经济路径(SSPs)下岷沱江流域未来径流情况.结果表明:(1)SWAT模型在岷沱江流域径流模拟中具有较好的适用性,研究区7个水文监测站月径流模拟效果较好;(2)采用MME模拟气温和降水相关系数分别为 0.99 和 0.93,模拟值与观测值有极高的相似度;(3)相较基准期,在各种情景下,未来岷沱江流域年均气温呈增加趋势,SSP5-8.5 增温最为明显,年均降水量呈波动上升趋势;(4)不同情景下的未来 2 个时期,岷沱江流域的径流量将会减少,2017-2050 年期间径流减少的幅度大于 2057-2090 年,减少的区域集中在岷江上游、沱江下游和青衣江流域.降雨的增加并不能完全消弭流域持续温升驱动的径流量减少.
The Minjiang-Tuojiang River basin is an important part of the Yangtze River basin,serving as an ecological corridor for the upper Yangtze River.Anticipating changes in basin runoff are crucial for planning sustainable development within the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle and we explored fu-ture runoff scenarios for the Minjiang-Tuojiang River.The period 1981-2014 was selected as the base-line period,and the periods 2017-2050 and 2057-2090 were chosen as the future periods.Based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)model and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6),four sets of daily meteorological data from Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)scenarios from six well-simulated Global Climate Models(GCMs)in CMIP6 were selected for multi-model ensem-ble(MME)research,and future runoff of the Minjiang-Tuojiang River under the four SSP scenarios were evaluated.Results show:(1)The SWAT model is suitable for simulating Minjiang-Tuojiang River runoff and monthly runoff simulation results for the seven hydrological stations in the study area were excellent.(2)The correlation coefficients for temperature and precipitation simulated by MME were 0.99 and 0.93,respectively,and the simulated values were very close to the observed values.(3)Compared with the base-line period,the average annual temperature in Minjiang-Tuojiang River will increase under the various scenarios of the future,with the highest increase under the SSP5.8-5 scenario,and average annual precipi-tation will show a fluctuating upward trend.(4)Under the scenarios,Minjiang-Tuojiang River runoff will decrease during the two future periods.The magnitude of runoff reduction will be greater during the first period(2017-2050)than the second period(2057-2090),with the highest reductions occurring in the up-per reaches of Minjiang River,the lower reaches of the Tuojiang River,and in Qingyi River.Increases in precipitation will not fully offset runoff reductions driven by the persistent temperature rise in the basin.The findings of this study provide a scientific basis for rational decision-making and management of wa-ter resources in the Minjiang-Tuojiang River basin.
江楠;倪福全;邓玉;向军;吴明炎;康文东;岳紫莹
四川农业大学水利水电学院,四川 雅安 625014四川农业大学水利水电学院,四川 雅安 625014四川农业大学水利水电学院,四川 雅安 625014四川农业大学水利水电学院,四川 雅安 625014四川农业大学水利水电学院,四川 雅安 625014四川农业大学水利水电学院,四川 雅安 625014四川农业大学水利水电学院,四川 雅安 625014
天文与地球科学
第六次国际耦合模式比较计划SWAT模型径流集合预估岷沱江流域
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)Soil and Water Assessment Tool modelrunoffensemble projectionMinjiang-Tuojiang River basin
《水生态学杂志》 2026 (1)
25-36,12
四川省教育厅"农村水安全"工程研究中心项目(035Z2289).
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