中国气候风险评估与早期预警框架OA

Global warming,intensifies by extreme events such as floods,droughts,and heatwaves,has led to a rising incidence of climate-related risks,posing severe challenges to sustainable socio-economic development.Un-der the ongoing influence of climate change,China faces increasingly pronounced climate risks.From 1984 to 2024,meteorological disasters caused an average annual direct economic loss of 320.6 billion yuan,resulted in 3 311 deaths,and affected 37.27 million hectares of crops each year.Between 2001 and 2024,climate extremes impacted approximately 280 million people annually.Understanding climate risks and issuing timely early warnings are therefore both a scientific frontier and a practical necessity for enhancing climate resilience. Drawing on the updated"hazard-exposure-vulnerability-response"risk assessment framework presented in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report(AR6),this study evaluates changes in six major climate-related hazards—rainstorms and floods,droughts,typhoon,high temperature,hailstorm,and low temperatures—in China from 1961 to 2024.Provinicial-level sensitivity to climate extremes is examined,and a methodological framework for China's climate risk early warning system is proposed.Using the early warning of heat-related health risks during the sum-mer of 2022 as a case study,we demonstrate the operational reliability of the system at the National Climate Cen-tre. The proposed framework emphasizes interactions among risk drivers and integratesin both the potential im-pacts of climate variability and change and the measures required to address them.By linking the physical and so-cio-economic determinants of risk,it supports more informed decisonon-making aimed at reducing the adverse im-pacts of climate change.Results indicate that accurate climate prediction,downscaling techniques,and climate im-pact assessment constitute core components of the climate risk early warning system.Early warning serves as a key pillar in establishing a modern climate service system centered on impact-based forecasting,risk-oriented alerts,and resilience-focused adaptation. The analysis further reveals that climate-related hazards in China have intensified over the recent decades,contributing to rising economic losses.Sensitivity to climate extremes exhibits distinct regional patterns:higher sensitivity is observed in the upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River basin—including Sichuan,Hunan,Hubei,and Yunnan—while regions such Xinjiang,Hainan,Qinghai,Ningxia,Xizang,Shanghai,and Tianjin show relatively low sensitivity. Several limitations remain.First,the quantitative representation of exposure and sensitivity at the county level requires further refinement to build a high-resolution climate risk assessment system.Second,the causal factors and relative weightings of different types of extreme events at finer spatial scales require deeper investigation—for ex-ample,heavy precipitation events should also account for hourly extremes in addition to daily totals.Third,the use of maximum-value normalization to construct the sensitivity index may be influenced by extreme disaster loss val-ues,introducing bias to the assessment.The assumption of equal weighting across disaster types also warrants fur-ther scrutiny. Looking ahead,the State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management(CPRM)will continue to advance methodologies for assessing climate impacts and risks in China and will work to develop a usable,reliable,and trustworthy climate risk early warning system to support national strategies on disaster pre-vention,mitigation,and climate change adaptation.