中国极端天气气候研究——"地球系统与全球变化"重点专项项目2025年度最新进展OA

This paper reviews the major research advances achieved in 2025 on weather and climate extremes o-ver China under the National Key R&D Program of China for Earth System and Global Change.These advances span five key thematic areas.(1)Novel detection and identification methods for clustered extreme temperature e-vents were developed,and a comprehensive dataset covering the past 60 years was established for China.The fun-damental characteristics of clustered extreme temperature events,warm-season compound extreme high-tempera-ture-precipitation events,and concurrent winter cold extremes between North America and East Asia were system-atically documented.Attribution analyses were conducted to quantify the respective roles of anthropogenic climate change and historical land-cover change in driving extreme temperature variability.(2)The circulation character-istics and dynamical and thermodynamical mechanisms underlying several representative extreme climate events were investigated,including summer extreme heat events over the southwestern Mongolian Plateau,large-scale winter temperature reversal events over East Asia,and the record-breaking extreme heat over the Yangtze River basin in the summer of 2022.(3)A new dynamical framework was proposed to improve understanding of Mad-den-Julian Oscillation(MJO)teleconnections.Results show that the tripling of MJO residence time over the rap-idly warming Indian Ocean during the summer monsoon enhances extreme climate events across Indian Ocean rim countries.The impacts of rapid Indian Ocean warming and re-intensified spring La Niña on extreme climate anom-alies in China were also examined.In addition,the roles of sea surface temperature anomalies in multiple ocean basins in modulating summer compound heat-drought events were assessed.A strong linkage was identified be-tween intensified clustered extreme autumn precipitation over North China and Arctic sea ice loss in key regions.(4)Mechanisms governing evapotranspiration variability,drought evolution,and the formation of compound high-temperature-drought events were explored.The subseasonal impacts of snow cover on atmospheric processes and the influence of soil moisture on extreme heat events were quantified.Results highlight the critical role of land-atmosphere coupling and land surface feedbacks in the development of compound drought-heat extremes,as well as in modulating ENSO-related impacts on early-summer large-scale atmospheric circulation over North A-merica.(5)New statistical models were developed for seasonal prediction of spring drought over Northeast Chi-na,and deep learning-based subseasonal prediction models were constructed for extreme high-temperature events over the Yangtze River.The role of Arabian Peninsula dust storms in May 2022 in preconditioning the record-breaking summer heat over China in 2022 was examined,along with the influence of North Atlantic SST anoma-lies on concurrent southern rainstorm and northern heatwave extremes over East China.It was further demonstrated that subseasonal reversals of Northwest Pacific SST anomalies strongly affect the dipole pattern of cold extremes in China,contributing to improved predictability of extreme low-temperature events.Corresponding prediction methods for subseasonal temperature reversals over North China were also established.Overall,these studies have substantially advanced the understanding of mechanisms and predictability of extreme weather and climate events in China and have contributed to measurable improvements in forecasting capability.