柑橘产量大小年年型等级与气象条件关系研究OA

Based on the meteorological conditions,this study established the grade prediction model of citrus yield in Pingle county,so as to provide technical standards for the formulation and imple-mentation of citrus management and field control measures in this area.Based on the grade data of citrus yield in Pingle county from 1991 to 2019 and the daily meteorological data of corresponding years,the meteorological indexes significantly related to the grade of citrus yield were selected,and the prediction models of multiple meteorological indexes were established.The results showed that:the key meteorological factors affecting the grade of citrus yield in Pingle county were the average of the daily average relative humidity from December of the previous year to January of the current year plus 30 days(X1),the average of the daily average relative humidity from April to May of the harvest year plus 25 days(X2),and the cumulative of the daily sunshine hours before May of the harvest year plus 5 days(X3).The meteorological indexes with high grade of citrus yield are:the days with daily average relative humidity≤70%from December of the previous year to January and add another 30 days of the current year(X4)is more than 50 d,the days with daily average relative humidity≤75%from April to May of and add another 25 days of the current year(X5)is more than 25 d,and the days with daily sunshine≥8 h from add another 5 days before May and May of the current year(X6)is more than 12 d.Comprehensive prediction model of the grade of citrus yield in Pingle county:Y=87.889-0.148X1-0.864X2-0.004X3-0.025X4-0.180X5+0.046X6(r=0.994**,n=12),the autoregressive qualified rate of the model is calculated according to the grade prediction error±0.3 grades,and the qualified rate is 100%.