基于应力极限状态的热煨弯管可靠度研究OA

To investigate the relationship between the reliability of hot bend pipes and the curvature radius,wall thickness,and production random deviations,and to seek approaches for improving their reliability,a stress-based service limit state equation was analyzed using the Monte Carlo method.The results indicate that the reliability of hot bent pipes increases with the mean wall thickness but decreases with the standard deviation of wall thickness.Increasing the mean curvature radius improves reliability,while changes in the standard deviation of curvature radius have a minor impact.When the curvature radius increases from 5D to 15D,reliability rises by 3.71%,and from 15D to 50D,it only increases by 0.49%.When parameter increments vary by 200%,the mean curvature radius has the greatest effect on reliability(up to 3.7%),followed by the standard deviation of wall thickness(approximately 1.15%),the mean wall thickness(approximately 0.17%),and the standard deviation of curvature radius(approximately 0.005%).The priority order for improving the reliability of the hot bending pipes is to increase the curvature radius,reduce the wall thickness standard deviation,and increase the design wall thickness..