崎岖的"中间道路":东南亚无核武器区建设三十年的困境与出路OA

The year 2025 marks the 30th anniversary of the signing of the Treaty on the Southeast Asia Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone(SEANWFZ)and the 80th anniversary of the United Nations,against a backdrop where the global nuclear non-proliferation regime faces severe challenges from intensified major-power rivalry and the erosion of traditional arms control mechanisms.As a significant experiment in regional security governance,the three-decade evolution of the SEANWFZ reflects the efforts of smaller states to pursue security autonomy through norm-building,while also revealing the structural dilemmas such zones face amidst power politics.Employing an integrated analytical framework of"material-institutional-ideational"power,this article systematically reviews the SEANWFZ's development from its Cold War origins,through difficult negotiations,to its entry into force,and critically examines the triple challenges it currently confronts in terms of geopolitical contestation,institutional effectiveness,and normative legitimacy.The study finds that while the treaty has achieved foundational success in establishing a regional non-nuclear identity and safeguarding the right to peaceful nuclear energy,its full implementation and authority remain hampered by the refusal of nuclear-weapon states like the U.S.to sign its protocol,by the impact of AUKUS,by weak internal verification mechanisms,and by emerging non-traditional security threats.Moving forward,enhancing the zone's resilience requires institutional modernization,expanded international cooperation,and pragmatic strategies to navigate major-power dynamics.As a neighboring responsible nuclear-weapon state,China can play a constructive role by taking the lead in signing the protocol,supporting regional capacity-building,and promoting nuclear safety cooperation in the South China Sea.This research offers a fresh perspective on the position of nuclear-weapon-free zones in the contemporary security order and provides valuable insights for improving regional security governance and the global non-proliferation regime.