基于机器学习的煤自燃倾向性预测比较分析OA
A comparative analysis of coal spontaneous combustion tendency prediction based on machine learning
为了得到泛化能力高的煤自燃倾向性预测模型,基于煤的多指标气体和工业分析参数,采用随机森林、神经网络、支持向量机和Stacking堆叠,通过预测煤的自燃温度和自然发火期,评估煤自燃倾向性.结果表明采用Stacking堆叠方法的预测模型泛化能力最佳,该预测模型特征重要性表明挥发分和乙烯分别在煤自然发火期和煤自燃温度预测中具有最强的关联性.分析模型性能指标,发现增加数据量可以显著提升随机森林、神经网络、支持向量机和Stacking堆叠方法在煤自燃温度预测模型中的泛化性能.对于煤自然发火期预测模型,单纯增加数据量意义有限,需要探索更多新特征以提升模型性能.
To develop a high-performance model for predicting the spontaneous combustion tendency of coal,on the basis of multiple gas indicators and industrial analysis parameters,four machine learning approaches(random forest,neural network,support vector machine,and Stacking ensemble)were used to predict spontaneous combustion temperature and natural ignition period,thereby evaluating coal spontaneous combustion risk.The findings indicate that the Stacking ensemble model exhibits superior generalization capability.Furthermore,feature importance analysis reveals that volatile matter and ethylene are the most influential predictors for natural ignition period and spontaneous combustion temperature,respectively.Model performance evaluation suggests that increasing data volume significantly enhances the predictive generalization of all four methods for spontaneous combustion temperature.However,expanding data alone yields only marginal improvement in predicting the natural ignition period.Enhancing feature representation is therefore necessary to further improve model performance.
邹佩喆;叶于欣;梁晓瑜;韩超
中国计量大学 能源环境与安全工程学院,杭州 310018中国计量大学 能源环境与安全工程学院,杭州 310018中国计量大学 能源环境与安全工程学院,杭州 310018中国计量大学 能源环境与安全工程学院,杭州 310018
资源环境
煤自燃倾向性机器学习煤自燃温度预测煤自然发火期
coal spontaneous combustion tendencymachine learningcoal temperature predictionspontaneous combustion period of coal
《重庆大学学报》 2026 (2)
34-45,12
浙江省自然科学基金面上项目(LY18E040001). Supported by General Program of Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China(LY18E040001).
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