2025年极端暴雨预报复盘及应对思考OA

A retrospective analysis was conducted on four extreme rainstorm events that occurred in Laiwu of Shandong Province,Miyun of Beijing,Yuzhong of Gansu Province,and Ji'an of Jilin Province in 2025.The analysis indicates that current numerical forecasting models still have evident limitations in predicting the initiation and life cycle of mesoscale and small-scale convective systems.In particular,large deviations remain in forecasting the location and intensity of localized heavy rainfall induced by long-distance moisture transport from typhoons and by complex topographic conditions.In response to these challenges,countermeasures are proposed from four aspects.First,the construction and application of water conservancy precipitation radar networks should be strengthened,while multi-source data fusion and AI-based inversion technologies should be advanced to achieve more accurate precipitation monitoring.Second,the"cloud-rain"precipitation model should be upgraded by introducing physical constraints and dynamic parameter calibration mechanisms,so as to overcome the bottlenecks of traditional statistical models in capturing multi-scale precipitation systems.Third,identification and forecasting models for typhoon residual vortices should be developed to address the problem of sustained disaster impacts after typhoon landfall.Fourth,AI-integrated ensemble precipitation forecast interpretation techniques should be developed to quantify the occurrence probability of extreme precipitation events.Through the above measures,it is expected that the lead time of flood-causing rainstorms can be extended and forecast accuracy can be improved,thereby providing stronger scientific support for flood control decision-making.