考虑用户意愿的电动汽车集群可调度容量评估方法OA

To address how variable user participation willingness affects electric vehicle(EV)dispatchable capacity assessment,this paper proposes a novel assessment method incorporating user willingness.First,joint entropy of probability density functions of EV load data is analyzed to identify dates with similar charging patterns,while a neu-ral network predicts the probability distributions of initial charging times and initial state of charge(SOC)for future days.Second,a user participation willingness model is constructed by integrating four key factors—battery health status,remaining SOC,expected idle duration,and discharge electricity price incentives—using fuzzy logic rules to quantify response willingness.Finally,individual EV dispatch capacity is calculated subject to travel demand and idle duration constraints,followed by the development of an aggregate vehicle-to-grid(V2G)dispatchable capacity model for EV clusters.Case studies demonstrate that the proposed method accurately predicts EV charging demand,effectively quantifies user response willingness,and enables precise assessment of EV cluster dispatch capacity.