首页|期刊导航|大地测量与地球动力学|徐州地震台同场地钻孔应变仪器预报效能对比分析

徐州地震台同场地钻孔应变仪器预报效能对比分析OA

Comparison of Forecasting Efficiency of Borehole Strain Instruments at the Same Site of Xuzhou Seismic Station

中文摘要英文摘要

基于徐州地震台2种钻孔应变仪的观测数据,应用R值检验方法对2种仪器记录的趋势转折型异常、破年变型异常及速率型异常的预报效能进行评分计算,系统地对比分析同场地2套钻孔应变仪器的预报效能,明确二者在地震前兆监测中的互补性.结果表明,钻孔体应变仪对趋势转折型异常和破年变型异常的预报效能表现良好,适合捕捉与长期地质构造活动相关的地震前兆异常信号.钻孔分量应变仪在趋势转折型异常和速率型异常的预报中展现出较强的能力,更擅长捕捉地质体受力状态发生变化而产生的趋势转折前兆异常信号,对于区域应力应变快速变化的监测具有较高灵敏性.研究结果揭示了钻孔应变仪器在地震前兆监测中的效能差异,同时给出了二者在地震预报中的应用重点及优化方向.

Based on the observational data of two types of borehole strainmeters at Xuzhou seismic sta-tion,we use the R-value test method to calculate and score the forecasting efficiency of trend-breaking anomalies,annual breaking anomalies and rate anomalies recorded by the two instruments.A system-atic comparative analysis of the forecasting efficiency of the two borehole strain instruments at the same site is conducted to clarify their complementarity in earthquake precursor monitoring.The re-sults show that the borehole body strainmeter performs well in the forecasting of trend-breaking a-nomalies and annual breaking anomalies,and is suitable for capturing the earthquake precursor anom-aly signals related to long-term geological tectonic activities.The borehole component strainmeter shows a strong ability in the forecasting of trend-breaking anomalies and rate anomalies,and is more adept at capturing the trend-breaking precursor anomaly signals caused by stress state changes of geo-logical body,and has high sensitivity for the monitoring of rapid changes in regional stress and strain.These findings reveal the efficiency differences of borehole strainmeters in earthquake precursor moni-toring and provide the application focus and optimization direction of the two types of borehole strain-meters in earthquake forecasting.

郝冉;刘冬冬;高明智;张岑;何斌;董传磊;许炳

宿迁地震监测中心站,徐州,221008江苏省地震局,南京,210014宿迁地震监测中心站,徐州,221008江苏省地震局,南京,210014江苏省地震局,南京,210014江苏省地震局,南京,210014江苏省地震局,南京,210014

天文与地球科学

钻孔应变观测R值检验方法前兆异常预报效能

borehole strain observationR-value test methodprecursor anomalyforecasting efficiency

《大地测量与地球动力学》 2026 (1)

115-122,130,9

中国地震局"三结合"课题(CEA-SJH-202502004)江苏省地震局科学基金(202413).

10.14075/j.jgg.2025.01.591

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