基于地震矩守恒的断裂带最大震级及复发周期估算方法OA

This paper reviews and summarizes traditional estimation methods,highlighting their reliance solely on observed seismic activity data.If the return period of the maximum earthquake exceeds the data coverage period or seismic activity rates fluctuate over longer timescales,these methods become inef-fective.Furthermore,in the absence of physical constraints,traditional approaches may predict un-bounded growth in the maximum event magnitude as the temporal scope expands.To address these limitations,this study introduces a new model based on seismic moment conservation.This model in-tegrates instrumental records,fault slip rates,fault geometry,and seismic activity patterns,assum-ing that seismicity follows the Gutenberg-Richter(G-R)law.By simulating missing large earthquakes and their aftershocks,it constructs a long-term seismic catalog and imposes physical constraints on the maximum magnitude using the seismic moment accumulation rate,effectively mitigating the reli-ance of traditional methods on observational periods.The model is applied to predict the Mmax and re-turn period of the Aerjin fault zone,the Kunlun fault zone,and the Longmenshan fault zone.The re-sults show high consistency with historical earthquake records,paleoearthquake data,and observed slip rates,validating the model's efficacy.This research offers a new perspective on maximum magni-tude estimation and provides a valuable tool for seismic hazard assessment in regions with incomplete historical records.