首页|期刊导航|大地测量与地球动力学|基于集成学习Stacking算法的南极热流预测模型

基于集成学习Stacking算法的南极热流预测模型OA

Antarctic Heat Flow Prediction Model Based on Stacking Algorithm for Ensemble Learning

中文摘要英文摘要

大地热流(heat flow,HF)是指地球内部传递至地表的热能,它能够揭示地球深部的各种作用过程及能量平衡信息.在南极洲地区,掌握热流情况对于模拟冰盖动态变化具有极其重要的意义.本研究运用机器学习中的Stacking堆叠算法,构建一个南极洲热流预测模型.该模型整合13种与热流相关的地质及地球物理特征的观测输入数据,并集成GBDT、XGBoost、RF、LightGBM、ET和MLP等6种常用于解决回归预测问题的机器学习算法,对热流的分布特征进行预测.实验结果表明,采用Stacking模型的预测精度优于多种基准模型.通过该模型得到的新的南极热流分布预测图,与其他传统方法所绘制的大规模估计热流分布图相比,更加契合南极洲热流的实际分布情况,展现出更为卓越的性能.

Heat flow(HF)refers to the heat energy transmitted from the Earth's interior to the sur-face.It can reveal various processes occurring in the deep Earth and information about energy balance.In the Antarctic region,understanding heat flow is of great significance for simulating the dynamic changes of ice sheets.This study employs the Stacking algorithm in machine learning to construct a heat flow prediction model for Antarctica.The model integrates 13 types of geological and geophysical features related to heat flow as observational input data and incorporates six machine learning algo-rithms commonly used for regression prediction problems,namely GBDT,XGBoost,RF,LightG-BM,ET,and MLP,to predict the distribution characteristics of heat flow.The experimental results show that the prediction accuracy of the Stacking model is superior to that of several benchmark mod-els.The new Antarctic heat flow distribution prediction map obtained through this model is more in line with the actual distribution of heat flow in Antarctica compared with the large-scale estimated heat flow distribution maps drawn by traditional methods,demonstrating more excellent performance.

蔡轶珩;张晓晴;稂时楠;崔祥斌;何彦良;张恒

北京工业大学信息科学技术学院,北京,100124北京工业大学信息科学技术学院,北京,100124北京工业大学信息科学技术学院,北京,100124中国极地研究中心,上海,200136北京工业大学信息科学技术学院,北京,100124北京工业大学信息科学技术学院,北京,100124

天文与地球科学

集成学习Stacking算法大地热流南极洲

ensemble learningStacking algorithmheat flowAntarctica

《大地测量与地球动力学》 2026 (1)

55-62,85,9

国家自然科学基金(42376253,42576289)国家重点研发计划(2024YFB3908003).

10.14075/j.jgg.2025.02.038

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