中国城市群未来产业与战略性新兴产业耦合协调发展的时空特征及驱动机制OA

In the new development stage,future industries and strategic emerging industries serve as critical vehicles for cultivating new quality productive forces,and their synergistic de-velopment is of great significance for optimizing the national innovation system and regional in-dustrial layout.These two types of industries are sequentially linked in technological evolution("frontier exploration—application diffusion"),require dynamic adaptation in factor allocation,and depend on institutional synergy in policy support,jointly forming a"twin-engine"for high-quality economic development.Based on industry life cycle theory,innovation diffusion theory,and institutional synergy theory,this study constructs a three-dimensional analytical framework of"temporal succession—factor adaptation—institutional synergy"to systematically explain the interactive mechanism between the two.Using data from A-share listed companies from 2013 to 2023,with precise industry code matching and manual verification,we aggregate and construct panel datasets for future industries and strategic emerging industries at the urban agglomeration level,covering 19 major urban agglomerations in China.By comprehensively applying the Verti-cal and Horizontal Scatter Degree Method,Coupling Coordination Degree Model,Dagum Gini Coefficient,and Quadratic Assignment Procedure(QAP),this paper empirically investigates the spatio-temporal differentiation characteristics and driving mechanisms of their coupling coordi-nation development.The findings reveal that:①Temporally,the overall level of coupling coordi-nation between future industries and strategic emerging industries in China's urban agglomera-tions is relatively low,and the coordination gap among optimizing/upgrading,mature/expanding,and cultivating/developing agglomerations shows a widening trend,indicating a growing issue of insufficient regional synergistic development.②Spatially,the overall difference in coupling coor-dination is mainly attributed to interregional disparities among the three categories of urban ag-glomerations,reflecting significant spatial differentiation and fragmentation,which unveils block-ages in the transmission chain from innovation sources to industrial hinterlands.③Regarding driving mechanisms,disparities in infrastructure,innovation output,and environmental rights markets such as carbon trading are the primary sources of overall coordination differences;data elements exhibit non-competitive and strong spillover characteristics,with a significantly nega-tive coefficient,helping to mitigate regional gaps.Further heterogeneity analysis shows that the three categories of urban agglomerations show heterogeneous responses to driving factors,provid-ing a basis for differentiated policy design.This study proposes policy recommendations from the perspectives of a"benchmarking+gradient cultivation"demonstration system,dynamic warning mechanisms,and reforms in local officials'performance appraisal,and tailors differentiated coor-dination pathways for the three types of urban agglomerations.For instance,enhancing the radi-ating and driving role of optimizing/upgrading agglomerations,while focusing on consolidating in-frastructure and talent foundations for cultivating/developing ones.This research not only deep-ens the theoretical understanding of the interaction between future industries and strategic emerging industries but also provides empirical evidence and decision-making references for promoting regional innovation synergy and industrial ecosystem optimization.