黄河流域旅游业碳排放时空分异及峰值预测研究OA

The carbon emissions from tourism in the Yellow River Basin have been continuously increasing,with a complex distri-bution pattern.Understanding the spatio-temporal characteristics and predicting the peak emissions are urgent needs for formulating scientifically sound and green low-carbon development paths.This paper first calculated the carbon emissions from tourism in the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2023 to analyze the spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics of the region.Next,the extended STIRPAT model was used to clarify the influencing factors in the region.Finally,a tourism carbon emission prediction model,along with scenario analysis,was applied to predict the peak time and value of tourism carbon emissions in the region.The results showed that:①The carbon emissions from tourism in the Yellow River Basin initially increased,followed by a sharp declined and then fluctuating rose.The spatial distribution showed a pattern of"more in the southeast,less in the northwest",with the center of gravity shifting from south-east to northwest,forming a small"w" shape.②The main reason for the overall carbon emission differences came from the regional dis-parities,which were mainly driven by differences in the upstream areas.③The five major influencing factors all affected tourism carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin,with significant differences in the strength of their impacts across different regions.④Under differ-ent development scenarios,the region's tourism carbon emissions followed a"rise first,then fall" evolution,with differences in peak times and values across scenarios,where the green development scenario is the best choice.