长三角耕地—粮食生产时空演变与区域协同治理OA
The spatial-temporal evolution and regional collaborative governance of farmland and grain production in the Yangtze River Delta
守牢耕地资源是实现粮食安全的重要基石,也是长三角一体化高质量发展的重要基础.以长三角地区为对象,集成重心模型、弹性系数模型和承载力模型,揭示了2009-2023 年耕地与粮食生产的时空交互规律.结果表明:①空间上,耕地资源禀赋和粮食生产实力呈北多南少、北高南低现象,地区差异显著;②时间上,耕地总量先降后升,优质耕地持续减少,粮食产量稳步提升,耕地和粮食生产重心向皖北移动;③耕地与粮食生产耦合关系总体向好发展,粮食生产对耕地的依赖程度增强;④耕地承载力总体平衡,但内部差异巨大,需强化耕地保护与区域协作.
Cultivated land resource is vital for food security and the high-quality integrated development of the Yangtze River Del-ta region.This paper combined the centroid,elasticity coefficient,and carrying capacity models to analyze the spatiotemporal interactions of cultivated land and food production in this region from 2009 to 2023.The results showed that:① Spatially,cultivated land endow-ments and food production capacities were greater and higher in the north than in the south,with significant regional differences.②Temporally,total cultivated land first decreased and then increased,high-quality cultivated land continued to decline,food output steadily rose,and the centers of gravity for cultivated land and food production shifted to northern Anhui.③ The coupling relationship between cultivated land and food production generally improved,with food production becoming more dependent on cultivated land.④Overall cultivated land carrying capacity remained balanced but with large internal differences,highlighting the need for enhanced culti-vated land protection and regional cooperation.
王莉莉
上海市自然资源调查利用研究院,上海 200072
管理科学
耕地承载力粮食安全时空演变弹性系数模型长三角
cultivated landcarrying capacityfood securityspatio-temporal evolutionelasticity coefficient modelYangtze River Delta
《资源开发与市场》 2026 (1)
24-32,9
上海市规划和自然资源局科研课题(编号:Ghzy2019029).
评论