从认知失衡到战略理性:气候风险如何影响企业绿色创新泡沫?OA

As the global climate crisis intensifies,the escalating physical risks from extreme weather events and the transition risks associated with tightening low-carbon policies are exerting dual pressures on corporate sustainable development.Against this backdrop,green innovation has emerged as a core strategic choice for firms seeking to address regulatory pressures,capture emerging market opportunities,and build long-term resil-ience.While existing research has systematically revealed the multi-level driving mechanisms through which cli-mate risk influences green innovation,the formation mechanism of green innovation bubbles under climate risk remains underexplored.Moreover,it remains unclear why firms facing similar external risk pressures diverge in their strategic choices between"substantive innovation"and"bubbly innovation".To address this gap,an im-printing theory is drawn on and data from Chinese A-share listed companies from 2013 to 2023 are employed.The executives'dual environmental awareness is introduced as a key mediating variable to empirically examine the pathway through which climate risk influences green innovation bubbles via executive awareness,thereby re-vealing the intrinsic logic behind firms'divergent strategic responses to similar climate risks from a decision-maker psychological perspective.Our findings indicate that climate risk significantly suppresses the formation of green innovation bubbles,with this effect being more pronounced among firms in eastern and western regions,state-owned enterprises,downstream industries,and heavily polluting sectors.Mediation analysis reveals that cli-mate risk influences green innovation bubbles through two opposing pathways:on one hand,it triggers opportunity-based environmental awareness among executives,which exacerbates green innovation bubbles;on the other hand,it strengthens responsibility-based environmental awareness,which suppresses such bubbles.Fur-ther analysis shows that a more balanced state of dual environmental awareness among executives strengthens the inhibitory effect on green innovation bubbles.Under balanced conditions,as the alignment of executives'dual environmental awareness increases prior to the threshold point,management reaches a consensus on the business value of environmental strategies,while their sense of environmental responsibility is simultaneously strength-ened.This facilitates the implementation of green innovation activities that are both practically beneficial and sustainable.Beyond the threshold point,however,a high level of cognitive alignment may weaken critical reflec-tion and dialectical thinking within the team.Driven by over-optimism and dual motivations encompassing both ethical and commercial considerations,group decision-making—lacking systematic assessment of implementa-tion conditions and risks—can easily lead to strategic blindness,thereby contributing to the formation of green in-novation bubbles.In imbalanced conditions,the"low opportunity-high responsibility"profile suppresses green innovation bubbles more effectively than the"high opportunity-low responsibility"profile.Moderating effect analysis indicates that when the heterogeneity of the executive team's overseas background is high,a higher con-sistency in dual environmental awareness strengthens the suppressive effect of climate risk on green innovation bubbles.Our findings provide empirical support for policymakers in designing targeted green innovation incen-tives and for firms in optimizing the cognitive structure of their executive teams,offering theoretical and practical insights for advancing industrial green transformation and high-quality development.