集对分析联系数方法在旱灾风险评估中的应用进展OA

Aiming at the uncertainty problems existing in regional drought risk assessment,this paper focuses on the core element of evaluation indicators in drought risk assessment,the theories and practices of the set pair analysis connection number method related to evaluation indicators(research variables)in regional drought risk assessment are systematically sorted out,and the applications of the connection number method in key links are elaborated on,such as drought risk factor diagnosis,construction and weighting of evaluation indicator systems,evaluation of single-index subsystems and comprehensive system evaluation,as well as stochastic simulation of assessment results.The results indicate that the connection number methods exhibit distinct advantages in quantitatively analyzing the uncer-tainty relationship related to drought risk assessment indicators.By incorporating the application steps of the connec-tion number method into the framework of Aristotle's syllogism,this assessment reveals the"middle term connection principle"—where evaluation indicators,acting as the middle term,serve as the link between evaluation objects and evaluation objectives in drought risk assessment.This principle can be extended to other structural water resources science methods such as modeling,prediction,and evaluation,highlighting the core role of research variables in sys-tematic analysis.Finally,the study prospects the key directions and trends of future research on this method.